The Lila Vadinar, a 2 million-barrel crude tanker, slipped through the Strait of Hormuz under cover of darkness with its Automatic Identification System switched off, illustrating the extreme measures shipowners now take to move energy through the waterway. Since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran, the 22-kilometer corridor along Oman's coast has become the only viable passage — Iran cannot easily mine or control these waters, and US Central Command has provided air cover since late May. Yet Iranian missiles have struck three tankers using this route, forcing vessels into convoluted coordination with the US Naval Cooperation and Guidance for Shipping for route coordinates, start times, and mine-threat updates.

Insurance premiums reveal the market's fear: war-risk rates spiked to 7-8% of hull value at the crisis peak, fell to 2% during a brief June ceasefire, and have climbed back to 2-6% as strikes resume. Crews receive double or triple hazard pay and vote on transits, though some face pressure to sail. Charter negotiations now include protective clauses for vessels stuck in the Gulf, and insurers issue 24-hour coverage windows given the fluid security picture.

Traffic has all but ground to a halt after the ceasefire collapsed and President Trump declared it "over" on Friday. Most shipowners are waiting for stability, but the fundamental standoff persists: Iran demands control of all strait traffic, while Oman and the US defend the southern corridor. Until that dispute resolves, one-fifth of global oil and LNG supply remains hostage to a narrow, militarized sea lane.