President Donald Trump touted a partnership between India’s Reliance Industries and America First Refining as a $300 billion oil‑refinery investment in Brownsville, Texas. In reality, two sources said the actual cash outlay sits at roughly $40 million, far below the disclosure threshold. The White House defended the figure, arguing the transaction’s projected revenue stream justifies the headline number for the United States and bolster domestic job creation.

RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra used the week’s policy meeting to spell out five war‑driven threats. Inflation could climb as oil prices wobble and weather‑linked food costs rise, while fertilizer subsidies strain the fiscal gap. Capital outflows intensify as investors hunt safety, and remittances from the Middle East may fall up to 20 %. Tightening credit conditions could further curb corporate spending and could pressure the rupee.

With the ceasefire fragile and private‑credit funds scrambling for liquidity—evidenced by more than $20 billion of redemptions in Q1—Indian markets face heightened volatility. The disparity between Trump’s rhetoric and the modest Reliance commitment underscores how political spin can distort investor perception, while the RBI’s caution signals that geopolitical shocks will likely dampen growth until stability returns across both equity and bond markets.