One IPO scoop to start: Loveholidays, the online travel agent tipped to be the London Stock Exchange’s first major listing of 2026, is preparing to delay its flotation amid market turmoil and travel chaos caused by Iran’s retaliation after US and Israeli strikes. The United Arab Emirates has sought to project a return to normality after days of Iranian missile and drone attacks, resuming flights and urging residents to get on with their lives.In today’s newsletter, the giants of private capital are facing a reckoning. Their stocks have slumped as much as a third over the past year, with pressure mounting due to rising redemptions at large semi-liquid credit funds and fears of corporate defaults.

On Tuesday, Blackstone’s $82bn private credit fund Bcred reported a $400mn infusion to offset $1.7bn in net investor withdrawals, accounting for 13% of its annual fees. Blue Owl’s stock briefly fell below its 2021 IPO price, highlighting investor anxiety. Executives like Blackstone president Jonathan Gray and Ares CEO Michael Arougheti defended their portfolios, citing low distress levels and temporary market fears. However, KKR executives have bought over $10mn of its stock, and Blue Owl co-founders face margin loan risks tied to falling share values.This could be a cleansing moment for private markets, which have avoided prolonged recessions since 2008.

Apollo CEO Marc Rowan warned of a looming “shake-out,” emphasizing the need for better risk management as groups face scrutiny over unsold assets and complex structures like continuation funds. The stress test may force transparency, potentially reshaping how private capital manages insurance assets or retail investor funds. Meanwhile, the DOJ’s abrupt reversal in its legal battle with law firms—after initially capitulating to Trump’s demands—adds uncertainty.

Firms like Jenner & Block and WilmerHale, which resisted earlier, now face renewed litigation, complicating the political and financial landscape. Market unease may ultimately purge excesses, as junk loan spreads tighten and underwriting mistakes are exposed. The coming weeks will reveal whether private capital can weather this storm or face a reckoning.