The International Energy Agency warned that petrol and diesel supplies face a crunch because wars have disrupted refineries in the Middle East and Russia. Restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz after the US and Israel struck Iran in February forced Gulf refiners to cut output, while global petrol demand stayed high as governments shielded consumers from pump‑price spikes.

An IEA report released Friday said industry stock draws are exceeding normal rates; if refinery outages persist, supplies will remain tight through the summer. Crude prices fell after Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding on June 17, yet refined‑product prices dropped less, pushing the crack spread to four‑year highs earlier this month.

Oil prices rose again this week after fresh US‑Iran military exchanges, and Donald Trump declared the fragile ceasefire "over." The IEA cautioned that a near‑halt of Hormuz shipments would worsen the outlook. Meanwhile, Ukraine intensified strikes on Russian export‑focused refineries, prompting Russia to ban diesel exports to contain a domestic fuel crisis.

The widening crack spread signals refiner margin pressure and suggests pump prices could stay elevated; investors should monitor Hormuz traffic and Russian export policy for near‑term price direction.