Global diesel supplies face a significant crunch, driven by Russia's export ban and renewed Middle East tensions affecting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Russia, the world's second-largest diesel exporter, blocked supplies following Ukraine's drone attacks on its refineries. This comes as Iran-US ceasefire disruptions, declared "over" by Donald Trump, have slowed tanker traffic.

The dual supply shock sent European wholesale diesel prices soaring, with the premium to crude oil reaching $60.70 a barrel. Despite falling crude prices, diesel remains elevated at approximately $135 a barrel, impacting consumers and industries reliant on the fuel, including agriculture and transport.

Analysts warn of potential shortages, particularly in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, which have less purchasing power. Russia's typical exports of 700,000 to 800,000 barrels per day are now curtailed, with Ukraine's attacks estimated to have knocked out up to 45% of Russia's refining capacity. This situation forces countries previously reliant on Russian or Middle Eastern diesel to compete for dwindling global supplies, potentially driving prices higher across the board.