Fertiliser companies worldwide are slashing phosphate production as the Iran conflict strangles sulphur supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Sulphur prices have surged from $150-$180 per tonne to as much as $900-$1,000, a fivefold jump that has turned a raw material problem into a full-blown supply shock. About 50 percent of global sulphur trade once flowed through the strait.

Mosaic reduced phosphate output in Brazil and the US after sulphur costs destroyed margins. OCP Group, the world's biggest phosphate exporter, brought forward plant maintenance and expects strategic inventories to last until the end of July. China halted phosphate fertiliser exports until at least August, while India launched a record 1.6 million tonne tender.

Saudi producers like Ma'aden and Sabic trucked products to Red Sea ports, but shipments still roughly halved. CRU vice-president Chris Lawson called the situation grim, noting every major phosphate supply source faces pressure simultaneously. Hexagon Group president Christian Wendel warned the fallout could shrink crops as early as next year and steer parts of the world toward famine.