Western oil majors are cashing in on surging energy prices after Iran’s war, but they are not racing to drill new wells. Baker Hughes reported fewer U.S. rigs last week than at the conflict’s start, and the Energy Department warned domestic output could dip in 2026. Investors demand budget discipline, fearing a rapid price slide if the Strait of Hormuz reopens.

Exxon Mobil and Chevron stuck to pre‑war production plans, saying they are already operating at capacity in West Texas and New Mexico. Exxon’s CFO Neil Hansen noted the company can’t boost output without new assets, while Chevron’s CFO Eimear Bonner stressed “discipline.” Both reported first‑quarter earnings that fell sharply—Exxon to $4.2 billion and Chevron to $2.2 billion—due largely to accounting adjustments.

A Dallas Fed survey found most executives expect U.S. output to be flat or rise under 2 percent this year, a fraction of the 10 million barrels daily shortfall caused by the Hormuz closure. Even ConocoPhillips, which added a Permian rig, warned of lower 2026 volumes because of Qatar disruptions. The net effect leaves U.S. production far short of filling the global gap.