The U.S. IPO market is roaring back after four quiet years, with 40 offerings worth $28 billion already filed through May, the strongest tally since 2021. A wave of mega‑listings now looms, led by SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, which filed a confidential prospectus targeting a $1 trillion valuation. Insiders, lawyers and bankers anticipate huge fees, but investors worry about another cycle‑top surge and could reshape equity markets.

Analysts warn that past top‑of‑cycle IPOs often triggered market corrections once lock‑up periods expired. Goldman Sachs estimates 2026 could see up to $500 billion of insider stock hitting the market, based on historic float‑release patterns. The firm has already raised its 2024 IPO volume forecast to $225 billion, up from $160 billion, underscoring the scale of new supply, raising concerns about valuation gaps.

The surge arrives amid broader macro pressures: high fertilizer costs from the Iran conflict and an imminent “Godzilla” El Niño threatening crops such as wheat and coffee. Commodity managers flag tighter supplies could stoke inflation, forcing central banks to react. With massive lock‑up expiries and volatile weather, market participants must watch insider selling and price volatility closely and pressure on corporate earnings.