Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 12, 2026, 10:32 AM ET
Energy & Commodities
Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel as the Iran war escalated, with the International Energy Agency cutting its supply forecast after a historic emergency stock release failed to calm markets. The conflict has disrupted 7.5% of global supply, forcing producers to slash output and close ports. In response, India asked China to allow urea sales as the war curtails gas supplies to fertilizer plants, while Qatar Aluminum reduced output to around 60% capacity to avoid a full shutdown. European natural gas followed oil higher as shipping turmoil in the Middle East worsened, with container rates to Europe from China jumping sharply amid route disruptions.
Global Markets & Currencies
U.S. stock futures slumped before Thursday's open as Middle East tensions intensified, while the dollar rose to a fresh 2026 high with options markets showing maximum bullishness since 2022. Emerging-market currencies faced mounting pressure, with India's rupee hedging costs soaring as importers rushed for cover amid record lows. The correlation between crude oil and emerging-market currencies turned the most negative on record, reversing decades of positive relationships. Turkish authorities paused rate cuts as inflationary pressures from energy price spikes and currency weakness mounted.
Fixed Income & Credit
Government bond yields rose across developed markets as oil prices and Middle East tensions worsened inflation and growth outlooks. The German 10-year yield climbed to its highest since 2023 on inflation fears, while U.S. 30-year Treasury yields approached 4.9% as traders priced in bigger global deficits. Commercial real estate remained a key risk for Deutsche Bank, with the German lender warning of potential credit loss provisions amid refinancing challenges. Meanwhile, senior loans lost their elite status as leveraged finance markets evolved, reducing the appeal of first-lien positions.
Corporate & Technology
Airbnb prepared for its debut high-grade bond offering as convertible note maturities approached, while Oracle allocated an extra $500 million to cover restructuring costs as AI models enabled software job cuts. Tesla obtained a UK electricity supply license, allowing it to provide power to domestic and commercial customers in England, Scotland, and Wales. Li Auto posted a narrow profit despite deteriorating sales and margins, grappling with flagging demand while trying to compete in China's electric vehicle market. Tesla China sales rebounded in February, bucking industry trends despite a nine-day Lunar New Year lull and subsidy phase-outs.
Private Markets & M&A
Charlesbank Capital Partners agreed to buy a stake in Canadian secondaries firm Overbay Capital Partners in a deal valuing the company at C$200 million ($147 . Blue Owl Capital defended its $1.4 billion loan sale, arguing the transaction contained no backstops or hidden incentives amid scrutiny of private credit practices. Norsk Hydro's Qatar aluminum joint venture altered shutdown plans to maintain 60% capacity rather than fully halting operations. Thyssenkrupp officials expressed doubt about a Jindal Steel deal for its steel division, citing increasing skepticism about reaching agreement.
Emerging Markets & Policy
India's inflation accelerated in February before the Middle East conflict, putting pressure on policymakers as energy supply disruptions push oil and gas prices higher. Indian firms withdrew $2.1 billion in bond sales since the Iran war began as investors demanded wider credit premiums. The International Monetary Fund urged South Africa to support its fiscal rule, saying the plan to control public finances would help restore policy credibility but needs significant backing to succeed. National Stock Exchange of India selected 20 bankers for its long-awaited $2.5 billion IPO.
Defense & Aerospace
Leonardo targeted higher revenue and earnings as the defense order boom continued, expecting orders this year to rise to about 25 billion euros from 23.8 billion last year, with a goal of 32 billion euros by 2030. European defense stocks rallied as geopolitical tensions escalated, with investors rotating into the sector amid heightened security concerns. The conflict in Ukraine continued straining Russia's energy revenues, with February oil-export revenue falling to its lowest since the invasion as Western sanctions and Ukrainian attacks disrupted sales.
Financial Services & Banking
Deutsche Bank raised its bonus pool 6.6% after mixed performance, less than some Wall Street peers amid varied business unit results. The German lender also sought to expand private credit offerings, applying conservative underwriting standards to its €26 billion portfolio as industry concerns mount. Lloyds Banking Group investigated an IT glitch that briefly allowed customers to see other users' information before being quickly resolved. John Lewis paid its first staff bonus in four years, granting a 2% payout while warning of a cautious outlook for the year ahead.
Regional Developments
The European Union's economic heavyweights urged stronger European payments systems, calling for reduced dependency on foreign systems and accelerated digital euro rollout to boost productivity. South Korea approved a $350 billion US investment package, establishing a special fund to invest in American industries as part of a broader trade deal. The conflict disrupted events and travel companies, with Informa delaying conferences and On The Beach warning of significant booking slowdowns for some destinations. Flights across the Middle East were disrupted anew as drone attacks inflicted damage on Iran's neighbors, unraveling coordinated passenger schedules through key regional hubs.