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Senior Loans Lose Elite Status as Credit Markets Shift

Financial Times Markets •
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Once considered the safest tier of corporate debt, first-lien senior loans are losing their privileged position in credit markets. Similar to how airport lounges have become overcrowded and less exclusive, these loans are no longer the secure haven they once were for investors seeking protection from the chaos of leveraged finance.

Several structural changes have eroded first-lien status. Loan-only unitranche structures have replaced traditional leveraged buyout deals that separated senior and junior debt, leaving senior tranches to absorb more losses. Moody's data shows junior debt in leveraged capital structures has collapsed from 33% to just 9% over two decades, concentrating risk higher in the capital stack.

Recovery rates for first-lien debt have fallen nearly 20 cents from their historical average of 75 cents per dollar, with a standard deviation of about 30% indicating potential for catastrophic losses. The phenomenon of "creditor-on-creditor violence" has emerged, where rival senior creditors compete for rescue financing, creating a new "super senior" tier while pushing others down. This undermines the core promise that attracted conservative investors like insurers and pension funds to these supposedly safe instruments.