The International Energy Agency slashed its oil supply growth forecast to 1.1 million barrels per day this year, down from 2.4 million barrels per day, marking the largest disruption in history. The Paris-based organization cited Middle East conflict as the primary cause, forcing major Gulf producers to curb output through critical transit routes.

This dramatic cut follows a historic emergency stock release and reflects the war's chokehold on global energy flows. All supply growth now comes from outside OPEC+ as the conflict escalates. The IEA's warning signals a fundamental shift in energy market dynamics that could persist for months.

The Middle East war has exposed vulnerabilities in global oil infrastructure, with the IEA's forecast representing a 65% reduction from previous expectations. This supply shock threatens to drive prices higher and force consuming nations to tap emergency reserves as they navigate an increasingly volatile energy landscape.