The Trump administration's immigration crackdown is eroding a key source of growth for US fast-food chains. Sales growth slowed sharply in 2024 and 2025 according to researcher Technomic. McDonald's announced it would slow its pace of store openings, while Wendy's and Subway have closed hundreds of locations over the past year.

This contraction coincides with a broader population slowdown. Economists estimate more people left the US than entered it last year for the first time in decades. Nearly 3 million people left the US last year through a combination of deportations and self-removal.

The vast majority of those targeted for deportation are from Latin American countries, a crucial segment of the fast-food industry. Analysts say fewer mouths to feed spells a problem for the sector. The US population grew just 0.5 per cent between July 2024 and July 2025, dramatically slower than in recent years.

Brookings Institution researchers estimate net migration turned negative in 2025. Fast-food chains are now confronting the opposite dynamic of the booming population growth that fueled expansion. Combined with a challenging economy, the population slowdown raises the question: 'Do we have too many stores in the US?' Since 2021, chain restaurant numbers grew 1-2 per cent annually, but those stores are attracting less business than before.

Data shows fast-food foot traffic declined almost every month in 2025 and 2026. Analysts warn the sector faces a structural shift as demographic tailwinds disappear.