Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Market Turmoil
US stocks rebounded midday Wednesday as better-than-expected jobs and services data offset Iran war concerns. The S&P 500 fell sharply as investors sold this year's winners amid the geopolitical shock. Citadel Securities lifted its bearish call, seeing a March bounce as fundamental analysis signals a time to turn bullish.
Energy Crisis
Oil storage is filling fast in the Middle East with Hormuz blocked, threatening output cuts if the situation persists. Jet fuel prices are soaring globally as oil traders grapple with Iran war fallout. Aluminum hit its highest level since 2022 after Bahrain's Alba declared force majeure on deliveries.
Shipping Disruption
Traffic through the vital Strait of Hormuz has reached a near standstill amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict. Container shipping companies are halting bookings and diverting vessels due to Middle East security risks. Gulf insurance costs have soared 12-fold despite Trump's guarantee, with shipowners quoted millions in premiums.
Corporate Impact
Wizz Air cut its annual profit guidance as the Middle East conflict forces flight suspensions and higher fuel costs. Continental warned its forecast for higher returns may be derailed by the war with Iran. Ford posted lower US sales in February on declines in electric and hybrid vehicles.
Regional Markets
KOSPI fell 12% in a single day amid massive foreign investor liquidation. Asian stocks are plunging as the region's economies depend on imported oil. African dollar bonds are widening as the Iran war drives investors into the safety of the US dollar.
Safe Haven Assets
Gold is falling despite Iran escalation as markets digest the conflict's trajectory. Bitcoin rallied past $73,000 while US ETFs saw inflows as investors sought alternatives. Silver Lake-backed UFC and WWE owner TKO Group launched a nearly $1 billion leveraged loan offering.
Policy & Regulation
Canada's labor productivity edged down in the final quarter of 2025 as economic activity pulled back. The Bank of Canada urged regulators to play catch-up on private-credit risk, warning global authorities must step up surveillance of nonbank lending. The Fed granted Kraken access to the payments system in a first for crypto groups.
European Markets
Euro-zone unemployment unexpectedly declined to a record low as economic expansion outpaces forecasts. European natural gas prices dropped amid reports of secret Iran peace outreach. European stocks could fall 10% if oil hits $100, according to Barclays.
Industrial Impact
US chemical stocks are set to gain from higher prices sparked by the Iran war. KeyBanc shuffled its chemicals playbook amid the conflict. Energy shock raises margin risks for EU chemicals, according to JPMorgan.
Services Sector
US services activity expanded in February at the fastest pace since mid-2022 as demand grew. State Street Investment CEO said market reaction to the Iran war "is not unexpected" as she sees a flight to safe-haven assets. Lending markets will remain friendly, according to Ares' Solomon, who says the higher interest rate environment has created discipline in real estate markets.