Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Market Turmoil
Stock futures dropped 1.2% as military conflict in Iran rattled global markets. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures fell around 1% while oil prices surged after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran showed signs of sparking a widening conflict across the Middle East.
Energy Crisis
Oil prices spiked as expectations for a glut of barrels shifted to concerns about their safety. Qatar shut down liquefied natural gas production at the world's largest export facility after it was targeted in an Iranian drone attack, sending European gas prices surging more than 50%. The Strait of Hormuz all but closed to shipping, disrupting how some of the world's major oil grades are priced.
Safe Haven Flows
Investors flocked to the US dollar as the traditional haven makes a comeback amid conflict in the Middle East. The Swiss National Bank said it stands ready to intervene in currency markets, hardening its tone on foreign exchange to respond to reverberations from the Iran crisis. The dollar strengthened versus all its major peers as a spike in oil prices spurred traders to dial back bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts this year.
European Markets
European stocks fell sharply on Middle East conflict with inflation concerns rising. European oil and defense stocks rallied on Middle East conflict as investors flocked to safe havens. The pound dropped while the FTSE 100 was set to fall as investors looked to havens.
Defense Sector
European defense companies soared on Middle East conflict as missile technology comes into focus. BAE Systems shares surged amid Middle East escalation. European insurers remained defensive amid escalating US-Iran conflict.
Shipping Disruptions
Shipping stocks jumped 4% as Iran disruptions forced lines out of Strait of Hormuz. Container shipping stocks jumped on fresh Middle East tensions as Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM and others rerouted vessels around the southern tip of Africa to avoid the Suez Canal and Strait of Hormuz.
Airlines Hit
Airlines extended flight cancellations as conflict worsened, sending airline stocks sharply lower. European airline shares fell up to 9% after US-Israel strikes on Iran. IAG dropped more than 5% as airspace closures hit flight schedules. Indian carriers emerged as hardest hit outside the Middle East as airspace closures across the region amid an escalating conflict forced widespread cancellations and diversions.
Corporate News
Norwegian Cruise Line reported lower fourth-quarter profit and said it was facing challenges from the mistiming of its increase in Caribbean capacity. Norwegian Cruise Line fell on weak guidance despite Q4 beat. Blackstone's BREIT recorded net inflows for the first time since 2022, a sign of rebounding sentiment in the real estate market.
Tech Sector
Amazon's extreme AI spending sent stock to worst month in years. SAP CEO Klein reorganized board to focus on developing AI as Europe's most valuable software company faces increasing pressure. Nvidia invested $2 billion in both Lumentum and Coherent as part of agreements to help accelerate advanced optics technologies for AI infrastructure.
Individual Stocks
Berkshire Hathaway, Norwegian Cruise Line and Amazon fell premarket while Lockheed gained. Centrica was cut to "hold" with flags on weak growth outlook through 2028. Novo Nordisk was cut to "neutral" with slashed price target after trial data.
Market Strategy
JPMorgan said to buy European oil majors as Gulf supply risks rise. Citi's Manthey sees UK stocks as good hedge amid Iran war. UBS sees entry point for European stocks even amid risks. Morgan Stanley's Wilson says Iran unlikely to dent bullish view on US stocks barring a sharp and sustained surge in oil prices.
Economic Impact
India's economy is at risk from the crisis in the Middle East if the conflict endures and disrupts oil supplies from the region that meet a large share of demand in the world's third-largest oil consumer. Italy's deficit breached EU's 3% ceiling in 2025 after all, an unexpected setback for Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government.
Rare Earths
A wave of new rare-earth supply this decade won't be enough to meet rising global demand, setting the stage for shortages and stronger pricing power for dominant supplier China and the handful of producers outside the country.