Global demand for rare earth elements is set to surge 7% annually through 2030, driven by electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and military applications, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. Despite billions in public funding for non-Chinese miners, supply deficits remain likely, creating shortages and strengthening China's pricing power in the critical materials market.

MP Materials Corp. and Lynas Rare Earths Ltd. are among producers expected to quadruple output outside China, backed by government support including from the Trump administration. However, even with $10 billion in projected public funding by 2026 through capital injections and fast-tracked permits, analysts Jack Baxter and Richard Bourke predict persistent shortages will limit market flexibility.

The report forecasts China's dominance in neodymium-praseodymium production will decline by 21 percentage points by 2030, with North American and Australian operations driving 41% supply growth. Yet most new non-Chinese output is already committed, reinforcing the likelihood of continued supply constraints that could impact EV production and defense technology development.