Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
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The S&P 500 fell 1.2% in its worst week since June, while Nasdaq-100 futures dropped over 1.5%. Entrata is advancing its IPO plans alongside Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. National Grid raised its earnings growth outlook to 10% through 2031. Smith+Nephew reported a Q4 beat but flagged 2026 profit risks tied to deal reimbursement delays.
Deals & Transactions
Francisco Partners completed a $2.2 billion take-private of Jamf. Bavarian Nordic appointed a new CEO following its failed $3 billion deal last year. Toyota is raising its offer to $38 billion to privatize its largest subsidiary after activist pressure. Barclays blocked transactions linked to property lender MFS months before its collapse.
Macro & Policy
Japan may intervene to buy yen amid Middle East speculation. Ecuador eyes a $4 billion bond sale return. China condemned US-Israel strikes on Iran. India refiners are seeking Russian oil alternatives due to Hormuz disruptions. Singapore may revise its GDP outlook on Iran-related oil prices.
Energy & Commodities
European natural gas surged 25% as Middle East disruptions threatened global flows. Aramco halted operations at its largest refinery after a drone strike. Turkey intervened to support its lira amid regional pressure. Oil prices could spike to $80/bbl this week on escalation risks.
Regional Markets
UK stocks fell sharply on Middle East conflict, with the pound dropping to $1.33. Pakistan stocks plunged after a record fall triggered a trading halt. Indonesia and India intervened to support their currencies. Asian airline stocks fell on Iran tensions and surging oil prices.
Corporate Developments
MTR saw full-year earnings quadruple from Nigerian/Ghanaian gains. MTN expects earnings to more than triple. Vodafone partnered with Amazon's satellites for European/African connectivity. Sony faces a £2 billion lawsuit over PlayStation game pricing.
Financial Markets
US Treasuries edged lower as inflation concerns outweighed haven buying. Emerging markets currencies and stocks slumped on Iran conflict and oil risks. Bitcoin fell to $66k amid the risk-off wave. European stocks slid as US-Iran strikes battered risk appetite.
Risk & Regulation
Bearish signals flashed after a 25% drop in Chinese tech stocks. UK physics cuts threaten tech growth. Barrenjoey merged to form a mini-Macquarie. Blue Owl faced gating concerns amid outflows. Swiss National Bank posted a CHF26 billion profit on gold gains.
Key Themes
War of Attrition starting: Iran aims to make allies pay a heavy cost. Iran's regime unlikely to splinter easily, says former diplomat. China views the conflict as pushing the world into a "law of the jungle." Turkish assets came under pressure as the lira faced support efforts. Global CTAs remain in extended long positions despite volatility.
Sources:
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