Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing

Market Moves

Oil prices surged on escalating Iran war risks despite the Trump administration ruling out strategic reserve releases. US payrolls growth likely moderated in February following January’s robust gain, pointing to a more sustainable hiring pace. Private credit funds reported falling income and dividend cuts, signaling continued pressure for the sector.

Deals & Corporate Actions

Online travel agencies may outperform as AI beneficiaries, according to Morgan Stanley analysis. Block’s restructuring involving a 40% headcount reduction is interpreted by Bernstein as an AI-driven strategic reset.

Geopolitical Market Impact

Polymarket betting on Iran strike timing exceeded $529 million, highlighting heightened volatility. Dubai’s defenses engaged Iranian drones and missiles, causing localized disruptions in the city-state. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer urged a return to diplomacy following US-Israeli strikes, affecting European risk sentiment.