US payrolls growth likely cooled in February after January's strongest hiring month in a year, with economists projecting 60,000 jobs added—less than half January's total. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%. After years of aggressive hiring, employers have sharply scaled back recruitment in 2025, marking the weakest year for payrolls growth outside a recession since 2003.

This moderation comes as American consumers face increased anxiety about the economy's trajectory. January retail sales data, due alongside the payrolls report, may offer limited insight due to severe winter weather disrupting activity across much of the country. Economists forecast modest gains in retail receipts excluding autos and gas, though auto sales slumped in January based on industry figures. Fuel prices had fallen to a five-year low earlier in the month before rebounding.

Beyond the jobs report, markets will parse manufacturing and services surveys for business sentiment clues, along with the Federal Reserve's Beige Book offering anecdotal economic insights. The moderation in hiring represents a significant shift from the labor market's post-pandemic strength, raising questions about consumer spending resilience as the economy adjusts to a slower pace of job creation.