Public Markets 3 Hours

Last updated: May 18, 2026, 2:30 AM ET

Energy & Commodities

Oil futures climbed 2.1% to near $78 a barrel as President Trump's renewed Iran warning clouded a tenuous cease-fire, while Middle East jet fuel shortages were averted by refiners maximizing output and boosting imports from the US and Africa. The conflict has inflated the US fuel bill by $40 billion, exceeding the cost of repairing all bridges or rebooting air traffic control. In metals, aluminum prices surged to a two-year high, lifting China Hongqiao's Zhang Bo to a $48 billion fortune.

Fixed Income & Currencies

A global bond sell-off deepened as Iran fears drove US and Japanese yields higher, with the 10-year JGB yield surging past the Topix dividend yield by the most since 2007, fueling rotation bets into bonds. Japan's five-year auction saw weaker demand amid inflation concerns from elevated oil. The dollar strengthened against the Singdollar on chart support, while mortgage costs jumped in North America and Europe despite central banks on hold, pressured by oil-driven inflation fears.

Equity Markets & M&A

Wall Street doubled price targets on Japan's chip darling Kioxia after a robust outlook, even as JGB outperformance raised concerns about equity rotation. In the UK, takeover activity exploded 250% as global buyers ignored political flux, with London M&A advisers on track for their best year in a decade. Rightmove data showed UK home prices rose at a 10-year May pace of 1.2%, while PG&E cut power to customers amid wildfire risks in California.

Geopolitics & Sectors

Tech workers are mobilizing for AI regulation, with Anthropic briefing the FSB on cyber flaws exposed by its new model, even as Elon Musk's legal challenge threatens OpenAI's $1 trillion IPO. Defence contractors lobbied to delay a US ban on Chinese rare earth magnets, and the EU planned forced diversification for chemicals and machinery. Investment firms remained committed to Middle East expansion despite the conflict, while uncrewed vessels prepared to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz.