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Iran Conflict Costs US Consumers $41.5bn in Extra Fuel Expenses

Financial Times Markets •
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Americans have paid $41.5bn extra for fuel since the Iran conflict began in late February, according to Brown University researchers. The war's economic toll equals the entire federal Bridge Investment Program, representing $316 per household that could have funded infrastructure improvements instead of higher gasoline costs.

The Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supply, pushing Brent crude above $110 a barrel. US gasoline prices surged 51% to $4.51 per gallon, while diesel jumped 54% to $5.65 per gallon. These energy shocks triggered the fastest consumer price increases since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, with wholesale prices rising at their quickest pace since 2022.

Higher fuel costs have rippled through the entire economy, inflating everything from groceries to airfares. The inflation spike drove 30-year Treasury yields to 5% for the first time since 2007, increasing borrowing costs across markets. President Trump's approval ratings have sunk to record lows as 58% of Americans disapprove of his handling of living costs.

Despite releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and easing environmental regulations, the administration's efforts haven't stemmed the crisis. Trump recently stated he doesn't consider Americans' financial situations when weighing war decisions, prioritizing nuclear non-proliferation over economic relief. The fuel burden demonstrates how geopolitical conflicts directly translate into household budget pressures and broader market instability.