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Britain's Financial Instability Echoes Italy

Financial Times Markets •
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Britain's political stability has deteriorated to resemble Italy's historically unstable governance, with prime ministers averaging under two years tenure since 2019. This instability has undermined the UK's financial haven status, causing 30-year gilt yields to surge to 5.8%—exceeding Italy's Eurozone crisis peak of nearly 8% under Berlusconi. Investors worry less about debt sustainability than fiscal discipline from a leftward lurch in Downing Street.

Foreign ownership of UK gilts has risen sharply to around 30%, mirroring Italy's bond investor profile and increasing vulnerability to market volatility. The Debt Management Office reports this proportion has grown significantly over the past decade as institutional money shifted to other markets, particularly the US. This reduced domestic investor base makes gilt yields more susceptible to political and fiscal shocks.

Policy measures in Italy have traditionally encouraged domestic institutions to purchase government bonds, while the UK has moved in the opposite direction. Barclays estimates regulatory changes could increase gilt demand by £150bn and reduce annual borrowing costs by £2.5bn. Despite investor concerns about a left-leaning government, Italy's current leadership has maintained budget discipline, resulting in yields a full percentage point lower than Britain's.