Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET

Inflation and Fed Policy

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to bring down inflation, though he did not specify whether he favored higher interest rates to curb price pressures. Traders are now pricing in a nearly 50% chance of a July interest-rate hike, with some economists suggesting the Fed is "behind the curve" as a tech economy booms. U.S. Treasuries surged as traders pulled back from bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes after consumer prices data came in lower than forecast. The dollar faces further declines after U.S. inflation undershot forecasts. In June, the Consumer Price Index fell to a 3.5% annual increase, marking the biggest monthly drop since 2020. However, renewed tensions in the Middle East have sparked concerns of a return to high energy prices. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that policymakers may need to raise rates if underlying inflation continues to signal broad price pressures.

Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Markets

Oil prices climbed above $87 a barrel as renewed missile attacks on ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz alarmed energy markets. The United States launched new strikes on Iran in a battle over the Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump claiming the waterway is open while Tehran insists it will remain closed. These tensions are threatening fresh global supply disruptions beyond oil and gas. Brent crude oil surged above $85 a barrel, pushing UK borrowing costs to their highest level since May. U.S. natural gas futures, however with inventories well above average and softer LNG demand due to terminal maintenance. The United Arab Emirates boosted crude output by 80% in June after quitting OPEC to escape production quotas. Meanwhile, China called for restoring normal passage through the Strait of Hormuz as soon as possible.

Corporate Earnings and Market Activity

Wall Street banks smashed records on stock trading, with earnings at JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bof A benefiting from an AI frenzy and the SpaceX IPO. However, International Business Machines Corp. reported preliminary results that missed analyst expectations, causing software and IT services company shares to plunge. Big banks and Big Tech are surfing the same wave, with Wall Street no longer the sole industry reaching into every corner of the economy. Investors are flocking back to Apple Inc. as nervousness about artificial intelligence spending weighs on chipmakers and cloud-computing giants. Buyout firm Francisco Partners is in advanced talks to acquire a controlling stake in construction software maker Command Alkon Inc. for as much as $1.3 billion.

Global Economic and Market Developments

Honduras is looking to buy back bonds and tap global markets for the first time since 2024, joining this year’s borrowing spree in emerging markets. Emerging-market bonds’ outperformance over Treasuries is attracting growing numbers of investors seeking to capitalize on compelling carry-trade returns. Chinese memory giant CXMT Corp. unveiled the terms of its initial public offering, seeking $9.8 billion. Brazil's medical provider Oncoclinicas announced an agreement with part of its creditors for an out-of-court restructuring of 5.1 billion reais ($993 million) of debt. Some Indian insurers are asking regulators to allow them to use more interest-rate hedging tools as they prepare to play a larger role in the country’s money markets.

Other Notable Market News

Gold settled 1.6% higher, and silver rose nearly 2%, snapping a two-session losing streak. A T. Rex fossil sold for $50.1 million, putting the king back on top in a booming fossil market. The U.S. small-business optimism index rose 2.1 points in June to 97.4 Business Confidence. European defense groups are planning an interceptor system to destroy missiles in space, drawing on lessons from the war in Ukraine. BP Plc said it expects to write down another $1 billion from energy transition assets in the second quarter.