OPEC lowered its global oil-demand growth forecast for this year to 780,000 barrels a day, down from the previous estimate of 970,000 barrels a day, citing renewed fighting between the U.S. and Iran that threatens crude flows and Gulf production recovery.

For next year, OPEC sees demand growth at 1.94 million barrels a day, up from its earlier projection of 1.73 million barrels a day. The group’s outlook remains far more optimistic than other forecasters, which expect the conflict to weigh more heavily on fuel consumption.

The International Energy Agency expects demand to fall by 1 million barrels a day this year, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration projects a contraction of 1.2 million barrels a day. Crude output among OPEC members rose by 3.05 million barrels a day to 22 million barrels a day in June, and OPEC+ output increased by roughly 3 million barrels a day to 36.28 million barrels a day.