OPEC trimmed its 2024 oil‑demand forecast, now projecting a rise of 970,000 barrels per day rather than the previously slated 1.17 million. The cut follows continued U.S. sanctions that choke Iranian output and keep the Strait of Hormuz near‑closed. Investors eye the shift as a bellwether for global supply curves.

Across OPEC members, output fell 177,000 barrels daily to 18.83 million in May, while the wider OPEC+ alliance saw a 185,000‑barrel dip to 33.13 million. Iran alone lost 546,000 barrels, its production slumping after U.S. shipping blocks. The cartel’s softer outlook contrasts with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s 1.1 million‑barrel decline forecast.

Contrasting forecasts put the world in a tight spot. The International Energy Agency projects a 420,000‑barrel contraction this year, while OPEC maintains a modest rise. Market participants weigh these divergent views as they price risk for gasoline, petrochemicals, and aviation fuel. Discrepancies may widen volatility in futures and spot markets.

For corporates, the revised outlook signals thinner margins in refinery chains and could prompt a pullback in capital spending. Energy firms may accelerate cost‑cutting and seek alternative supply routes to hedge against further sanctions. The update underscores the fragility of Middle East output and its ripple effects across the global economy.