Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 12, 2026, 2:30 PM ET

Global Markets React to Geopolitical Tensions and AI Dominance

Global markets showed mixed performance as investors navigated geopolitical tensions and the continued dominance of a few technology stocks in emerging markets. Oil futures edged higher amid escalating US-Iran conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, though maritime advisories indicated the waterway’s southern route remained open to shipping. In emerging markets, just three technology stocks valued at $4.4 trillion are driving an outsized share of returns, prompting investors to rotate beyond these AI winners. South Korea’s stock market is trading at record-low valuations despite a blistering rally, presenting an unlikely backdrop for investors. Meanwhile, Nigeria is taking steps to achieve frontier market status as its stock market surges, seeking to capitalize on renewed investor interest.

US Markets Eye Inflation Data and Corporate Earnings Amid Shifting Strategies

US markets are anticipating a critical earnings season, with stocks priced for optimism facing a key test. Investors are watching upcoming inflation data and Federal Reserve testimony for clues on monetary policy. The S&P 500 is poised for a near-record earnings season, but questions remain whether this will sustain the bull market. Primary dealers have become net short on debt for the first time in recent history, sparking a quest for answers. Exxon Mobil supports a proposal to end mandatory quarterly reports, advocating for semiannual disclosures. In the chip sector, Morgan Stanley warns of mounting pressure on chipmakers’ pricing power, suggesting stocks may have rallied too far.

Hollywood and Entertainment Face Shifting Consumer Preferences and Tech Challenges

Hollywood’s independent studios are experiencing a revival with hits like "Michael," which has surpassed $1 billion at the box office, though questions remain about the long-term sustainability of this success. However, Disney’s live-action remake of "Moana" faltered at the box office, taking in approximately $43 million domestically, about 30% less than anticipated and casting doubt on the studio’s formula as ‘Moana’ falters. Prediction markets are emerging as a potential alternative for World Cup betting, with users possibly facing a lighter tax burden compared to traditional sportsbooks. FIFA’s prediction-market partner, ADI Predictstreet, has reportedly had a rocky start, with users citing issues with a World Cup ticket giveaway.

Technology and AI Continue to Reshape Industries, Sparking Innovation and Scrutiny

The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence is reshaping industries, from drug discovery to corporate strategy, but its long-term profitability faces scrutiny. While AI has entered drug labs, investors are questioning whether to pay up for it based on Wall Street’s timelines. The use of AI in code writing is overwhelming the web's human caretakers, raising questions about who will manage the aftermath. Big Tech firms face potential fines for consumer protection failures in the EU, as Brussels seeks to strengthen social media safeguards. OpenAI’s second-in-command is stepping down, marking another leadership shake-up at the AI giant as it prepares to go public.

Corporate Dealmaking and Market Dynamics Show Mixed Fortunes

Corporate dealmaking and market dynamics are exhibiting varied outcomes across sectors, with private equity firms attracting more capital while some companies struggle to maintain valuation gains. Big private equity firms are pulling in more cash, with a shrinking pool of recipients potentially indicating a coming wave of "zombie firms". In the aviation sector, a battle for Easy Jet highlights the volatility of the low-margin airline business, rarely attracting such intense competition between US funds. China Vanke anticipates its first-half loss may widen to $2.2 billion due to low gross margins and impairment charges. Meanwhile, inflation's unequal distribution means the poorest are paying the most, particularly in energy shocks.

Automotive Sector Navigates Global Slowdowns and Electric Vehicle Debates

The automotive sector is grappling with deepening slowdowns in key markets, particularly China, while consumer perspectives on electric vehicles remain divided. Volkswagen and BMW reported bruising second-quarter sales declines in China, offsetting gains elsewhere. Electric vehicle batteries are lasting longer than anticipated, though readers express skepticism regarding their durability and viability. Slate Auto is launching a $25,000 electric pickup truck, aiming for affordability in a challenging market.

US Political Landscape and International Relations Under Scrutiny

The US political landscape and its international relations remain under intense scrutiny, with ongoing investigations, shifting alliances, and policy debates shaping the narrative. President Trump has faced scrutiny regarding his financial dealings and claims about his presidential salary and stock market gains. The US and Iran are engaged in tit-for-tat attacks, with the Strait of Hormuz at the center of escalating tensions. Ukraine's leadership is undergoing a shuffle as the war turns in its favor, with President Zelensky announcing changes amid a broader shake-up. Senator Lindsey Graham's recent death has triggered a special election in South Carolina, with the governor able to appoint a replacement as Graham's re-election.

Emerging Markets and Developing Economies Show Signs of Growth and Volatility

Emerging markets and developing economies are showcasing a mix of surging growth and underlying volatility, with some nations seeking to attract investment and others facing capital flight. Nigeria is actively pursuing frontier market status as its stock market surges, aiming to capitalize on renewed investor interest. However, Indonesia is experiencing capital flight as President Prabowo's crackdown on tycoons fuels fears of more forceful measures to extract wealth as Prabowo's crackdown. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is strengthening partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region through a three-nation tour, covering areas from missiles to critical minerals. Meanwhile, China Vanke's first-half loss is projected to widen to $2.2 billion due to property development and impairment charges.