Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: July 7, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Public Markets Briefing

Geopolitics & Energy Markets

Oil futures jumped sharply after the U.S. revoked Iran’s license to sell oil, a direct response to Iranian attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This action followed heightened tensions and skirmishes in the waterway, which threatens vital oil flow and prompted Pakistan to secure an LNG shipment as Persian Gulf exports remained constrained. The U.S. revocation of the waiver, a key incentive for an interim peace deal, now puts that agreement at risk. Meanwhile, BP Plc boosted jet fuel production by 30% in European refineries during the conflict, helping to buffer regional shortages. Germany's oil stockpiling agency is also moving to refill strategic diesel reserves, potentially adding pressure to an already tight fuel market. Despite these pressures, OPEC+ has pledged to pump more oil even as prices fall, a decision coming as U.S.-Iran talks aimed at ending hostilities have eased supply concerns, though broader market volatility persists. Russian oil flows hit new highs, but slumping prices are crushing income, with Urals prices now back to levels seen before the U.S. and Israel launched operations against Iran.

Technology Sector & AI Investments

U.S. technology shares declined significantly as earnings from Samsung Electronics failed to impress investors, reigniting concerns over the durability of the year’s rally in artificial intelligence-related investments. This tech rout deepened, with chipmakers particularly affected, though SpaceX received bullish calls from analysts. Despite broader market jitters, SpaceX shares debuted on the Nasdaq-100 but later stumbled, falling below their initial opening price amid a general tech slump. One analyst, however, maintains a highly optimistic outlook, seeing SpaceX's valuation soaring above $10 trillion, and Morgan Stanley assigned a $300 price target. The company's stock performance has puzzled some market watchers, as shares have stalled despite significant Wall Street interest. The broader AI investment landscape remains volatile, with investors fleeing increasingly unstable AI-linked assets. Apollo Global Management warned that companies outside the largest tech firms are struggling to show profitability gains from their AI spending. On the AI development front, Meta released its first image model since its AI overhaul, Muse Spark Image, which will be integrated into its chatbot and Instagram.

Equity Markets & Investor Sentiment

U.S. stocks retreated as investors grappled with volatile AI investments and renewed fears stemming from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The tech sector's weakness resumed after Samsung's earnings missed high AI expectations, putting renewed pressure on chipmakers globally. Despite this, Morgan Stanley strategists see a rotation from chips into hyperscalers, suggesting that while a new rally to record highs might be difficult, these larger tech players could still perform. Hyperscalers appear "downright cheap", according to Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett, who advises investors not to dismiss the Magnificent Seven. Meanwhile, hedge funds are reportedly most negative on the Japanese yen since 2007, as the currency trades near its weakest level in four decades. In a positive sign for the sector, hedge funds are posting their best first half since 2021, shaking off a brutal March. China's central bank, meanwhile, bought the most gold since 2023, extending its longest buying streak and underscoring a diversification strategy.

Dealmaking & Corporate Activity

Jefferies is seeking $5 billion in debt to potentially back Carl Icahn in a rival bid for Caesars Entertainment. In the infrastructure space, Honeywell is spinning off a unit to target the AI supply chain through a $14.5 billion deal for Element, creating a company with a combined enterprise value of approximately $29 billion. Canada is offering C$400 million ($282 to Teck Resources to boost strategic metals output from a key refinery. In telecommunications, Angola plans to raise as much as $320 million in what would be the nation’s largest IPO for Unitel SA, aiming to finance its budget. Abu Dhabi’s royal family in liquefied natural gas company Mid Ocean Energy LLC. Apple supplier Luxshare Precision Industry Co. priced its Hong Kong listing at the top of its range, raising HK$24.3 billion ($3.1 billion). An Aberdeen-backed internet provider, Airband, has initiated a sale process that puts £200 million of investors’ money at risk due to steep losses.

Global Markets & Economic Outlook

U.S. consumers' inflation expectations rose in June, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey, with anticipated increases in medical care and rent costs. Traders are increasing bets that the market is overestimating the Federal Reserve's rate hikes this year, hedging for a less hawkish stance from the central bank. Germany's debt mountain must stabilize in the long term to retain its top AAA credit grade, according to Scope Ratings. France has cut its 2026 GDP forecast to 0.7% due to a delayed budget and the Middle East conflict. Argentina is targeting an investment-grade rating by 2031, according to Economy Minister Luis Caputo. Brazil's Treasury is prepared to act to ease stress in its inflation-linked bond market, which has seen shifting demand and investor concerns. Meanwhile, Japan’s JGBs fell amid worries about the nation's fiscal policies.

Regulatory & Legal Developments

The Federal Reserve proposed changes to anti-money laundering requirements for banks, part of a broader effort by U.S. regulators to address core financial risks. Federal officials are now requiring states to implement paper ballot systems, verify citizenship, and conduct costly audits to receive some terrorism grants. In France, an appeals court confirmed Marine Le Pen’s embezzlement conviction but shortened a ban on her eligibility for elected office, allowing her to run for president in 2027. The U.S. revoked a waiver allowing the sale of Iranian oil, a move that came weeks after the countries had agreed to negotiate an end to hostilities. Germany has filed its first charges related to a €300 million global payment-fraud scheme that defrauded millions of credit card holders. In the U.K., high-spending online gamblers will face financial checks, with individuals depositing over £1,000 daily subject to risk assessments.

Real Estate & Infrastructure

A building in Midtown Manhattan was evacuated due to concerns of partial collapse, prompting city officials to restrict traffic in the area. Subway lines remained operational, though some bus routes were diverted or delayed. The U.S. trade deficit widened in May, driven by a record high in goods imports, including pharmaceuticals and data center equipment. In the U.K., potential Prime Minister Andy Burnham is proposing a warehouse tax to fund business rate cuts for pubs and music venues, a move that has drawn warnings from retailers about its potential scale. Canadians are reportedly skeptical of Prime Minister Mark Carney’s proposal to open airports to private investment, with a recent poll indicating a slim majority oppose the idea.

Sports & Entertainment

Rogers Communications is acquiring the remaining stake in Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment for C$4.35 billion ($3.06 . The World Cup has had a mixed impact on the markets, with shares of Mexican airport operators falling after June traffic figures disappointed expectations of a boost from the event. Politics have entered the soccer arena, with President Trump’s intervention in the U.S.-Belgium game highlighting his assertiveness across various global events. A significant branding battle is underway for the image rights of soccer legend Maradona, involving millions of dollars and causing family disputes. Separately, Mariska Hargitay will host, a departure from the typical comedic hosts. The debate over whether "The View" is a bona fide news program continues, with ABC asserting that the FCC ruled on the matter in 2002, a stance challenged by media regulator Disney.

Other Markets & Trends

Precious metals finished lower, with gold and silver experiencing declines, although analysts see potential upside for gold in the latter half of 2026. China’s central bank, however, bought the most gold since 2023 in June, signaling a commitment to diversifying reserves amidst bullion price volatility. Gold's three-year bull market may have ended, with little evidence yet of significant short-selling activity. In agricultural markets, corn and soybean futures jumped to a month-high as traders focused on weather concerns. The luxury goods market is showing a K-shaped economic trend, with pawnshops seeing increased demand for quick cash alongside affluent customers seeking secondhand luxury items.