OPEC+ pledged to raise output even as oil prices decline, a counterintuitive move that underscores the cartel's bet on tightening balances later this year. The group's ministers confirmed the plan after a virtual session, overriding concerns that extra barrels could deepen the current slide.

The decision arrives as U.S.-Iran talks aimed at ending the war have reduced geopolitical risk premiums, easing pressure on global supplies. Diplomats report progress on a framework that could eventually return Iranian crude to markets, though sanctions relief remains unresolved.

Broader volatility persists across energy markets, with demand forecasts diverging sharply between the International Energy Agency and OPEC's own secretariat. Traders are weighing Chinese consumption data, U.S. inventory builds, and the Federal Reserve's rate path against the cartel's supply calculus.

For now, the production hike puts a ceiling on any sustained rally, leaving consumers with a temporary cushion at the pump while producers absorb narrower margins.