OPEC+ ministers are poised to approve a fresh output increase of 188,000 barrels per day starting in August, adding to previously scheduled hikes for June and July. The decision comes as Gulf oil flows gradually resume following disruptions from the conflict affecting the Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes.

Production among seven core members fell sharply to 33.13 million bpd in May from 42.77 million bpd in February, before beginning recovery in June with US assistance to UAE and other producers. The group is unwinding a 1.65 million bpd supply cut agreed in 2023, with approximately 379,000 bpd of that reduction scheduled to return to market from August onward.

Brent crude prices have retreated to around $72 per barrel, down from peaks above $120, as traders anticipate normalized supply. The decline reflects weaker Chinese imports, increased non-Middle East exports, and coordinated IEA strategic petroleum releases. A memorandum of understanding has eased concerns about prolonged supply disruptions.

Iraq is pushing for higher quotas while the UAE exited the alliance in late April to align production with its capacity. If current increase pace continues, OPEC+ will complete the rollback of remaining output cuts by September's end, signaling a return to pre-war production levels.