Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: May 9, 2026, 2:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Turmoil and Energy Markets

Global energy markets remain heavily influenced by the ongoing Middle East conflict, with crude oil traders weighing truce prospects after a three-day advance in copper prices. The disruption caused by the conflict is severe; Chinese energy imports plummeted in April as shipments through the critical Strait of Hormuz were choked, while LNG carriers tested the Iran blockade after Pakistan cancelled spot purchases anticipating a resumption of Gulf flow. Corporate earnings reflect the volatility, with Shell reporting a near $7bn profit for the first quarter, more than double the prior period, driven by higher oil and gas prices and increased trading activity resulting from the conflict, a trend also benefiting Shell’s overall first-quarter profit. Meanwhile, the US administration punted thorny negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear program, prioritizing the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz “at all costs,” even as the US conducts frequent boat strikes against suspected drug traffickers in the Caribbean and Pacific killing two in one recent strike.

The geopolitical instability is also causing collateral economic damage and shifting investment flows. An oil slick was detected near Kharg Island, raising infrastructure concerns, while global financing discussions remain tense, with President Trump’s planned summit with Xi Jinping carrying modest expectations regarding trade and AI. In fixed income, bond investors are betting differently than stock investors, signaling concern over sustained conflict, even as some financiers at the Milken conference basked in roaring markets, seemingly brushing aside the Iran conflict. Furthermore, the conflict has indirectly boosted regional markets; Brazil’s stock exchange staged a rally, emerging as an indirect beneficiary of the Gulf turmoil.

Corporate IPO Rush and Private Markets

The pipeline for initial public offerings remains active across specialized sectors, even as broader market sentiment shows signs of overheating. AI chipmaker Cerebras Systems is poised to raise its IPO price range due to intense demand for artificial intelligence hardware, while quantum computing firm Quantinuum, backed by Honeywell International Inc., filed for a US listing. In the defense and aerospace space, Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. is joining a pre-SpaceX listing rush, while Inspire Brands, the owner of Dunkin’ and Arby’s, has filed confidentially for an IPO, with its public filing revealing ownership of over 33,300 locations and $33.4bn in sales under Inspire Brands. Conversely, some institutional investors are facing liquidity concerns, with BlackRock warning that Europe’s €14tn cash hoard benefits banks over retail investors due to under-investment in capital markets, a sentiment echoed by the Milken crowd who dislike the term ‘semi-liquid’ following a retail exodus from those assets.

Private credit remains deeply involved in large corporate financing, with Apollo Global Management and Blackstone Inc. negotiating a substantial $35bn financing package for chipmaker Broadcom, indicating the continuing appetite for large-scale private lending deals. In the asset management space, BlackRock is preparing two tokenized money-market funds targeting stablecoin holders, signaling a belief in durable demand for non-bank cash investment vehicles. In contrast to the IPO optimism, KNDS NV’s planned IPO is reportedly wavering over valuation concerns amid falling peer valuations.

Asset Management and Sectoral Shifts

Asset managers are dealing with structural shifts in consumer behavior and regulatory pressures. Standard Life and CVC are attempting to structure defined-benefit pension risk transfer deals, targeting the over £1tn sitting in UK retirement schemes. Separately, retail investors are retreating from commercial property holdings due to the decade-long impact of higher interest rates and decreased demand. Retail restructuring is also evident in the UK high street, where Modella Capital, the new owner of WHSmith, plans a deep restructuring, intending to close as many as 150 of the 480 stores acquired and introduce new retail offerings in a contrarian high street bet. Meanwhile, Jane Street cemented its position as a top Wall Street prop firm, reporting $10bn in first-quarter profit after doubling its trading revenue.

Technology and Infrastructure Spending

The artificial intelligence boom continues to drive massive capital expenditure, though it is creating divergence among tech giants. Big Tech’s $725bn spending spree on AI infrastructure has pushed their free cash flow to a decade low, transforming them from asset-light models to heavy infrastructure investors. This spending pressure is shaping results for major Chinese players, as Tencent and Alibaba face slowing growth due to rising AI investment costs and increased domestic competition following DeepSeek’s recent activity. While the sector rallies, exemplified by the Nasdaq hitting another new high driven by Intel’s surge on an Apple deal, market dominance is being challenged; Nvidia’s grip on the AI processor market is reportedly under threat, causing it to lag the broader tech rally. Anthropic’s CEO projects the firm could grow 80 times this year, exponentially increasing its need for compute power, with the company seeking a ‘perfect wingman’ to manage this growth.

Political and Legal Developments

Political maneuvers and legal challenges marked the period globally. In the US, the Trump administration plans to dismiss FDA Commissioner Marty Makary, who reportedly created friction over vaping and drug approvals, while simultaneously axing the Commissioner entirely. Domestically, redistricting battles continue following Supreme Court rulings, with Tennessee approving a new map aimed at flipping its last Democratic seat, and Alabama urging the Supreme Court to allow its new congressional map. On the international front, Russia’s Victory Day Parade appeared visibly scaled back due to security concerns, signaling Moscow’s growing vulnerability to the ongoing war, while the US sanctioned Chinese firms supplying materials for Iran’s drone program. In institutional matters, a federal appeals court ruled lawmakers can continue inspecting ICE centers, while a Special Counsel was appointed to investigate a Trump administration lawyer for alleged misconduct in a case where the DHS now admits it cannot locate the migrant involved Mahmoud Khalil, who faces expedited deportation proceedings.

Commodities and Sovereign Finance

Gold prices finished the week up 1.95% at $4720.40, with Comex gold settling higher for a fourth straight session as traders positioned themselves amid geopolitical uncertainty. In contrast, China’s gold output declined in the first quarter due to safety inspections, even as domestic investor demand for physical bars and coins jumped. Sovereign finance saw positive movement in emerging markets; Fitch upgraded Ghana’s rating based on improved fiscal management and greater foreign reserves, despite regional threats, and the IMF approved tranches for Pakistan totaling $1.32bn to bolster its economy. However, other nations face strain: Cuba faces devastating ripple effects as US pressure forces Sherritt International to shutter nickel operations, and Colombia’s inflation ticking up increases the probability of renewed rate hikes after the central bank’s surprise hold was intended to avoid election interference noise Colombia’s surprise rate hold.

Real Estate and Consumer Spending

Concerns over higher borrowing costs are dampening real estate activity, with housebuilders scaling back land purchases and casting doubt on government housing targets. In Germany, lenders are attempting to offload a non-performing loan on the struggling Cal Edison office tower in Los Angeles German banks looking to sell. Consumer resilience is mixed; Disney reported strong earnings despite a slowdown in park visitors, while restaurant groups like Bloomin’ Brands and Dine Brands posted revenue gains by leveraging value offers. Grocery spending remains focused on affordability, with Instacart reporting higher revenue driven by customers shifting to value-focused retailers. Meanwhile, McDonald’s warned franchisees about margin pressure due to rising beef and energy costs.