President Trump and China's Xi Jinping are set to meet in Beijing next week for a two-day summit that could define the next stage of rivalry between the world's two major powers. The leaders will discuss the war in Iran, trade disputes, Taiwan and artificial intelligence. This marks their first meeting in China since Trump imposed triple-digit tariffs on Chinese goods during their bruising trade war.

Much has changed since their October meeting in South Korea, when they agreed to a temporary trade truce. Trump is now embroiled in a war with Iran—China's closest Middle East partner—that has triggered a global energy crisis and diverted U.S. military assets from Asia. The conflict has depleted American munitions, raising questions among Chinese analysts about Washington's ability to defend Taiwan. Xi simultaneously grapples with slower economic growth and the threat of a global recession hurting China's export-dependent economy.

The U.S. is pushing the "Five B's"—Chinese purchases of Boeing airplanes, U.S. beef and soybeans, plus investment and trade boards. Beijing emphasizes the "Three T's": tariffs, technology and Taiwan, likely seeking an extension of the trade truce and looser export controls on advanced semiconductors. Analysts expect modest agreements rather than major breakthroughs. "We probably shouldn't expect this meeting to have particularly substantial, major breakthroughs," said Zhao Minghao of Shanghai's Fudan University.