Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: April 13, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Tensions & Commodities Shock

Global markets braced for deepening energy supply shocks as President Trump escalated threats to bar all vessels from Iranian ports, with plans to enforce a Strait of Hormuz blockade. This move, coming after stalled peace talks, immediately sent oil prices above $100 and caused emerging-market assets to slide as traders retreated from riskier positions. The turmoil is already impacting physical trade flows; Saudi Arabia confirmed it would halve crude sales to China next month, while Japanese toilet maker Toto suspended new orders due to material shortages stemming from the disrupted oil supply chain. Furthermore, aluminum prices surged to a four-year high, as the Gulf region accounts for roughly 9% of global output, adding inflationary pressure across industrial sectors.

The energy crisis is demonstrating severe downstream effects across Asia. India experienced an uptick in inflation in March, driven by soaring crude prices and constrained gas supplies for vital industries, even as its currency, the rupee, suffered weakness beyond the war’s impact. In Southeast Asia, countries are actively managing fuel security; Malaysia is implementing measures to address shortages projected to become "critical" by June, even detaining tankers for suspected illegal diesel transfers. Meanwhile, Taiwan announced it would conduct new military drills to ensure access to critical supplies should a similar blockade scenario materialize against its energy routes.

Financial Sector Earnings & Dealmaking

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. reported a strong 19% jump in first-quarter profit, marking its best quarter in five years, largely powered by its equities unit which saw traders post a second consecutive quarterly record, beating their previous all-time high by over $1 billion. This strength in stock trading, fueled by the volatility stemming from the Iran war, helped shield overall earnings despite the fixed-income, currencies, and commodities business falling short of expectations. Strategists at Morgan Stanley noted that accelerating bank earnings are currently masking a broader pullback in US equities, suggesting corporate results offer a temporary buffer against geopolitical headwinds. In M&A, Somnigroup agreed to acquire component supplier Leggett & Platt for $2.5 billion, continuing its vertical integration strategy in the mattress sector.

The private markets space continues to see massive capital formation despite underlying asset concerns. Josh Harris’ 26North Partners collected nearly $6 billion for its debut private equity strategy, setting a new US fundraising record for a first-time manager. Concurrently, Adams Street Partners raised $7.5 billion for its third private credit vehicle, more than doubling the size of its predecessor fund, while the UK’s state-backed pension scheme Nest invested £450 million into US private credit, signaling continued institutional appetite for the asset class. On the advisory front, Perella Weinberg moved to acquire London boutique Gleacher Shacklock, continuing the trend of US investment banks expanding services across Europe.

Global Economic Strains & Political Shifts

The energy crisis is forcing recalibrations across global supply chains and government policies. In Indonesia, benchmark prices for nickel ore were hiked by the government, further pressuring local processors already dealing with cost inflation linked to Middle East instability. In Australia, concerns over low fuel reserves have prompted Western Australia to consider establishing its own diesel stockpile, acknowledging the economy’s heavy reliance on imported refined fuel for farming and mining operations. Politically, the defeat of Hungary’s Viktor Orbán in a landslide election offers hope for the disbursement of a blocked €90 billion EU loan for Ukraine, as the challenger’s victory was fueled partly by voter unhappiness with endemic corruption.

Meanwhile, the aftermath of geopolitical instability is reshaping corporate and financial regulation. In the Philippines, authorities ordered Meta to tighten controls against the spread of "panic-inducing" fake news on its platforms, following earlier pressure on state-backed entities for reporting standards. In China, the court-ordered liquidation of the massive shadow bank, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, marks a significant step in winding down one of the nation’s largest financial conglomerates. Amid the broader uncertainty, Bill Ackman began marketing the IPO for his Pershing Square closed-end fund, even as the shadow of the Iran conflict dampens broader dealmaking optimism. Chinese clean-tech manufacturers, however, are positioned to benefit from the Gulf energy shock, as rising oil prices boost demand for their solar and wind power solutions, a trend mirrored by Chinese firms poised to win big from the energy crisis.