Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: April 13, 2026, 11:30 AM ET

Geopolitical Shocks & Commodity Markets

Global markets absorbed the fallout from President Trump’s order to blockade the Strait of Hormuz following failed peace talks with Iran, sending oil prices back above $100 a barrel and dampening optimism for the first-quarter earnings season. The move immediately impacted energy futures, with European natural gas prices jumping sharply as the threat to maritime traffic materialized, while US natural gas futures rebounded on the oil price gain amid cooler weather forecasts. This supply disruption caused OPEC’s crude production to suffer a record plunge last month, as key members were forced to curb output and divert exports away from the choked waterway, though Kazakh oil exports from a Russian Black Sea port are still set to match a May record.

The escalating energy crisis, which some suggest is only just beginning, is already straining inflation metrics globally. India’s inflation edged up in March due to elevated crude prices, though emerging markets overall are showing surprising resilience; inflation there has sunk to a record low despite acceleration in advanced economies, suggesting developing nations may be better positioned to absorb higher energy costs. However, the uncertainty has caused a risk-off sentiment, with Japanese 10-year government bond yields climbing to their highest since 1997 as investors sought safety, while aluminum prices surged to a four-year high based on fears concerning Gulf supply, where the Middle East accounts for roughly 9% of global output.

Corporate Finance & Dealmaking Activity

Investment banking activity saw major players capitalizing on volatility and preparing for funding needs, as Goldman Sachs reported a 19% profit jump for its best-ever quarter in banking and markets, largely driven by its equities unit posting a second consecutive quarterly record, beating its previous high by over $1 billion due to market turbulence fueled by the Iran war. Concurrently, Goldman Sachs kicked off a three-part investment-grade bond sale to self-fund following its results, while SoftBank Group Corp. is speaking with investors ahead of a potential six-part debt sale in dollars and euros as it continues its debt-raising spree. In the IPO market, activity is showing tentative signs of life despite geopolitical headwinds, with life science firms formally marketing US listings to raise an aggregate of up to $693 million and convenience store operator Yesway Inc. seeking to raise as much as $321 million.

In the private markets, fundraising remains strong, evidenced by Josh Harris’s 26North Partners collecting nearly $6 billion for its debut private equity strategy—a US record for a first-time fund—and Adams Street Partners securing $7.5 billion for its third private credit vehicle. However, warnings persist over the sector’s stability, with the Dutch financial markets regulator cautioning that the $1.8 trillion private credit market may face further turmoil following distress at direct lenders. Separately, Michael Saylor’s Strategy Inc. funded its latest $1 billion Bitcoin purchase entirely through the sale of its high-yield “Stretch” securities, marking the first time the firm has used that mechanism for a full weekly purchase since July.

US & European Political Economy

In the US, President Trump faced legal setbacks as a judge dismissed his lawsuits against The Journal’s publisher, ruling that he had not "plausibly alleged" actual malice in reporting regarding a letter to Jeffrey Epstein. Meanwhile, political turbulence in Europe saw the decisive election defeat of Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who had acted as a major impediment to EU unity, leading to hopes that a blocked $90 billion euro loan for Ukraine might now be disbursed. The election winner, Peter Magyar, stated that while Hungary should eventually adopt the euro, he could not provide a target date, and vowed to work with the current central bank governor, Mihaly Varga, focusing instead on the immediate difficult financial situation.

In corporate maneuverings, the competition for digital advertising supremacy continues, with Meta expected to unseat Google as the world's largest digital ad player thanks to new AI-driven products. On the regulatory front in Europe, incoming EU competition official Anthony Whelan has vowed to maintain the line against Big Tech regardless of external political pressure, while in the UK, the Bank of England secured US approval for a new framework allowing greater flexibility in implementing a 'bail-in' process to rescue failing lenders. Further corporate restructuring saw Somnigroup agree to acquire supplier Leggett & Platt in a $2.5 billion deal to advance its vertical integration strategy, and Leonard Green Partners planning a $3 billion acquisition of a construction consultancy amid a slower patch for private equity dealmaking.

Sector Moves and Regulatory Focus

Healthcare and transportation sectors saw mixed signals as companies navigated inflation and regulatory scrutiny. Two health-care firms began formal marketing for US initial public offerings, seeking to raise an aggregate of $693 million, while Danish drugmaker Leo Pharma AS is reportedly lining up banks for a potential IPO later this year in Copenhagen. Regulators are increasing pressure on clinical transparency, with the F.D.A. now pushing drug developers to report all clinical trial results, as many unfavorable outcomes currently go unreported, thereby skewing data on medical treatments. In transportation, Volkswagen Group vehicle deliveries declined by 4% year-on-year due to weakness in the US and China markets, prompting consideration by VW, BMW, and Renault for range-extended vehicles to ease consumer range anxiety regarding full electric adoption.

Financial institutions are also grappling with operational and market dynamics. Brazil’s deposit insurance fund, FGC, is currently refusing a loan to Banco de Brasilia SA until it can quantify losses stemming from its exposure to the troubled Banco Master SA. In Miami, the wealth inflow continues, underscored by the planned implosion of the Mandarin Oriental to make way for a new $1 billion luxury project. Meanwhile, the contentious US-Iran standoff has had ripple effects across global finance; for instance, Pakistan is actively seeking financial support from Saudi Arabia and China after being required to repay a $3 billion loan to the UAE.