Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: March 29, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Turmoil & Commodity Markets

The persistent conflict in the Middle East continues to reverberate across global commodity and shipping markets, with Wall Street strategists touted ‘grind lower’ trades anticipating a slow, grinding market selloff as the Iran war entered its fifth week. Energy markets faced severe supply risk, prompting two Australian states to temporarily offer free public transport to mitigate soaring local fuel costs, while major Australian liquefied natural gas plants suffered outages following a severe cyclone, compounding existing supply pressures. Furthermore, top Chilean copper producer Codelco expects disruptions from the conflict to increase its production costs by approximately 5%, illustrating quantified inflationary impact across industrial inputs, even as the UAE ramped up oil exports from ports positioned outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Disruption to vital shipping lanes has also impacted specialized inputs, with the Iran war lifting key Japanese aluminum premiums to an 11-year high, while other non-energy sectors are feeling the pinch; supply-chain disruptions are rippling through markets for fertilizer, semiconductors, packaged consumer products, and cotton, according to analysts examining the other markets being rattled. Conversely, the conflict is poised to benefit some exporters, as the U.S. and other natural gas providers stand to gain, though disruptions are simultaneously pushing gas-buying nations to consider alternatives like solar or nuclear energy to reduce reliance on natural gas. In a specific regional development, the Philippines’ sole refiner, Petron Corp., procured 2.48 million barrels of crude oil from Russia as it actively seeks alternatives should the Iran conflict persist.

Fixed Income & Private Credit Strains

Global fixed income markets faced a brutal period, with the traditional 60-40 portfolio of global equities and fixed income on course for its worst month since 2022, leaving investors feeling there was ‘nowhere to hide’ as both stocks and bonds slumped in tandem following the Iran shock. This environment has driven sharp increases in Treasury yields, offering little relief to investors battered by stock losses, while in Europe, Eurozone borrowing costs soared on fiscal hit fears, with investors flagging a general deterioration in public finances. Amid this volatility, investors specializing in distressed debt, including major players like BlackRock and Pimco, are actively targeting the private credit sector, viewing the sector’s current strain as the ‘greatest opportunity’ since the 2008 financial crisis, despite the fact that the fast-growing sector remains opaque and intertwined with banks. Adding to this stress, the SEC division overseeing private credit firms reported that it lost 24% of its staff last year, potentially weakening regulatory oversight just as leverage concerns mount.

Corporate Finance & Dealmaking Activity

Major private capital firms are continuing aggressive expansion plans, with Apollo looking beyond New York to establish a second headquarters in a southern U.S. state to support its continued growth, even as private credit funds like Blue Owl and HPS experienced losses in February, marking their worst performance in over three years. In the technology sector, the anticipated AI data center boom is facing scrutiny, with research suggesting that these centers will require much less memory than previously estimated, causing memory chip stocks to shed $100 billion as the AI-driven shortage trade unwinds. Meanwhile, SoftBank secured a record $40 billion bridge loan to finance its stake in OpenAI, increasing its debt load to keep pace in the global artificial intelligence race, while Google is nearing a deal to help finance a multibillion-dollar data center leased to Anthropic, aiming to bypass grid connection delays via direct gas supplies.

Pharmaceutical dealmaking remains active, as Eli Lilly moves to sign a $2 billion deal with a Hong Kong biotech firm to accelerate drug development in China, while in Europe, private equity firms including CVC are reportedly exploring divestments for the Italian drugmaker Recordati SpA following its proposed €10.9 billion takeover by CVC Capital Partners. In food and beverage, the potential merger between McCormick and Unilever’s food division would remake McCormick into a global powerhouse, though historical data on ‘Big Food’ mergers offers a cautionary note, and Nestlé is pushing forward with a €5 billion sale of a 50% stake in its water division, with CD&R, KKR, and PAI advancing.

U.S. Political Economy & Regulation

The political environment in Washington remains fractious, with domestic policy debates focusing on energy incentives and political spending ahead of the midterms. Democrats are reviving a tax proposal targeting ‘windfall’ profits, a move which critics argue would reduce the price incentive necessary to boost domestic oil and gas production. Concurrently, a new political group, Innovation Council Action, plans to spend at least $100 million to promote President Trump’s A.I. agenda during the midterms, while other political movements, galvanized by the Iran war and immigration crackdowns, organized thousands of protests under the banner of the ‘No Kings’ movement across the United States. In regulatory matters, speculation regarding insider trading was fueled by reports of well-timed prediction-market wagers, leading California Governor Newsom to ban state officials from using inside information on betting platforms.

International Economic Policy & Trade

International economic policy is facing pressure from geopolitical risk and protectionist sentiment. An analysis suggests that a proposed U.S. quota increase for the IMF would ultimately do more for Beijing than for America, potentially cementing China's superpower status as it benefits economically and diplomatically from the Iran war as noted by the Financial Times. Meanwhile, in Asia, India is attempting to stabilize its currency and economy, with lenders urging the Reserve Bank of India to relax new foreign-exchange rules that could saddle them with large losses as a $30 billion unwinding looms, while the government also plans to build 100 new airports and 200 helipads to boost regional connectivity. In Europe, Switzerland's president is attempting to restrict wine imports to boost local producers, drawing criticism from foreign rivals and domestic merchants alike.