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Iran War Disrupts Global Gas Markets, Pushing Nations to Alternatives

New York Times Business •
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The war in Iran is sending shockwaves through global energy markets, forcing countries to reconsider their dependence on natural gas. With Qatar halting exports after sustaining extensive damage to its facilities, nations from Japan to Bangladesh are scrambling for alternatives. The United States, already the world's largest gas exporter, stands to benefit from the disruption, but the longer-term implications could reshape energy strategies worldwide.

This crisis marks the second major gas price spike in recent years, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Countries that invested billions in liquefied natural gas infrastructure now face unreliable supplies. Japan, Thailand, and South Korea are burning more coal to generate electricity, while South Korea urges residents to conserve energy. The International Energy Agency estimates Europe now uses 16 percent less natural gas than before Russia's invasion, highlighting how quickly nations can adapt when forced.

Energy executives at Houston's CERAWeek conference acknowledged the volatility concerns. Cheniere Energy CEO Jack Fusco warned that disruptions every few years undermine gas's reliability. Goldman Sachs recently raised Asian LNG price forecasts by 15 percent, with prices expected to be 57 percent higher by 2028 than pre-war projections. While U.S. consumers have been insulated so far, analysts predict domestic prices will rise if demand increases and Qatari supplies remain offline. The crisis is accelerating investments in renewables, nuclear power, and energy storage as nations seek to reduce their exposure to geopolitical shocks.