Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: March 25, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Tensions & Macro Impact

Global markets registered considerable volatility over the past three days, largely driven by developments concerning Iran’s military engagements and ongoing diplomatic signaling. The International Monetary Fund is actively running various scenarios to gauge which nations may require emergency financing should the conflict in the Middle East prolong, while the Bank of France trimmed its 2026 economic growth forecast and simultaneously lifted its inflation prediction due to surging energy costs stemming from the war. In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields rose 4.4 basis points as uncertainties persisted, though yields briefly stabilized after President Trump postponed strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, causing oil prices to slump.

The fallout from the conflict is acutely felt across energy and industrial sectors worldwide. Energy commodity firms are grappling with ‘insane’ volatility that is confounding production planning, even as Nigeria attempts to speed up revival permits for idle oil wells from weeks to hours to capitalize on high prices. European nations are bracing for shortages; the UK approved a £100 million plan to restart the Ensus carbon dioxide plant for three months amid fears of supply interruptions, and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni sought to boost Algerian gas flows to cushion the loss of Middle Eastern supplies. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has ramped up crude shipments from Yanbu on the Red Sea, causing shipping fees from that port to Asia to plummet as tankers divert from the Strait of Hormuz.

Specific industries face unique strains, with the impact extending far beyond immediate fuel costs. The conflict’s disruption to commodities will have a long-lasting impact, while chemical giant BASF sharply raised prices again due to increased input costs. In the US, homebuilder KB Home cut its guidance, now forecasting revenues between $4.80 billion and $5.50 billion for the year, citing Middle East instability adding to homebuyers’ caution. Furthermore, emerging markets are suffering; Mozambique’s dollar bonds sold off for a tenth straight day as the oil shock deepened its financial crisis, and India’s economic activity slowed in March with manufacturing slumping due to gas shortages.

Regulatory & Corporate Finance Shifts

On the regulatory front, top US financial officials unveiled a proposal that would require non-bank firms to clear a higher threshold before being labeled as systemically important or "too-big-to-fail." Relatedly, in private capital, Bank of America started a Private Capital M&A team specifically to focus on private equity exits, as buyout firms are holding onto assets longer and seeking novel monetization strategies. In the technology space, Meta laid off 700 employees while concurrently implementing a new stock program for executives, signaling a continued pivot toward artificial intelligence development. In a separate legal development, a jury awarded $3 million in damages after finding Meta and YouTube negligent in app designs that harmed a young user’s mental health.

Private Equity & Dealmaking Activity

Private equity activity saw several major moves, with KKR preparing to realize a 15-fold return on its investment via the pending sale of its data-center cooling business, Cool IT, where employees stand to receive average payouts nearing $240,000. Separately, KKR is also bidding alongside GIP for Patrick Drahi’s French fiber network, XpFibre, with bids ranging between €6 billion and €8 billion as Drahi seeks debt relief. In the consumer space, KKR struck a deal to acquire Nothing Bundt Cakes from Roark Capital, while Roark itself faces activist pressure regarding its ownership of Driven Brands, with ADW Capital pushing for a sale. Investment banking activity, despite volatility, is expected to remain high, as a top Goldman Sachs dealmaker cited "massive pools of capital" driving long-term M&A prospects.

Fixed Income & Treasury Market Dynamics

The Treasury market experienced a pause and subsequent recovery as geopolitical clarity improved. Treasuries gained following postponed strikes, halting a yield surge, while Morgan Stanley strategists observed that recent market slumps showed characteristics of forced selling in two-year notes. The US investment-grade bond market reopened for activity on Monday after a three-session halt, as easing conflict concerns allowed high-grade borrowers back into the market. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s financial health continues to reflect past stimulus actions, as the central bank posted an $18.7 billion loss for 2025.

Technology & Digital Finance Trends

The proliferation of tokenization and digital finance is accelerating across traditional channels. Bank of Montreal plans to launch tokenized cash capabilities for institutional clients, allowing 24/7 fund transfers, mirroring efforts by Franklin Templeton, which debuted tokenized ETFs trading around the clock via crypto wallets. The chip industry remains central to tech valuations, with seven of the world’s 25 most valuable firms hailing from the semiconductor sector, though firms like Super Micro need Nvidia’s chip allocations to secure their market standing. Furthermore, the luxury fashion house Dolce & Gabbana is engaging lenders as weak global demand and debt terms create pressure, juxtaposed against the massive potential IPO of SpaceX, which is targeting up to $75 billion.

Banking & Financial Firm Setbacks

Financial institutions are dealing with specific losses and legal challenges. Jefferies reported a further $10 million loss linked to its off-balance sheet financing exposure to a collapsed auto parts supplier, First Brands. In litigation news, hedge fund founder George Weiss lost his defamation suit against Jefferies, which he had claimed was a smear campaign over a $100 million debt. Separately, Apollo’s insurance arm became the second-largest borrower in the Federal Home Loan Bank system last year, utilizing the Depression-era program designed to support mortgage lending.

Market Structure & Investor Sentiment

Investor behavior is shifting amid economic uncertainty, with some looking toward areas previously considered niche. The ETF industry’s major annual conference convened on a Las Vegas casino floor, reflecting a search for engagement outside traditional venues. In the realm of alternative markets, prediction markets platform Polymarket implemented new insider trading rules following scrutiny over suspected manipulation, even as the NCAA attempts to shut down betting on college sports on similar platforms like Kalshi, which still set a new record during March Madness. Sentiment for traditional consumer stocks may be bottoming out, as recent performance has been so poor that it is flashing a potential buy signal.

Corporate Governance & Activism

Shareholder activism continues to shape corporate strategy, evidenced by Elliott Management’s involvement with chip design software maker Synopsys, where the activist investor is pushing for greater profits. Meanwhile, in a corporate governance dispute, shareholders of Korea Zinc Co.—more than a year after an initial attempt to seize control—will again vote on the chairman’s fate. In the UK, climate-focused institutional investors, including an Anglican clergy pension fund, plan to vote against directors at major banks like HSBC and Santander over perceived backtracking on climate risk pledges.

Transportation & Energy Infrastructure

The aviation sector is navigating high costs and operational disruptions exacerbated by the Middle East conflict. British Airways is offering pilots bonuses to cut fuel consumption as carriers seek to lower major expenses amid soaring oil prices. Meanwhile, Lufthansa is reporting a surge in bookings for March departures as it shifts capacity to Asia to capitalize on Gulf-based carriers facing disruption. A tragic accident at LaGuardia Airport involving Air Canada Express resulted in two pilot fatalities, leading to public rebuke for the Air Canada CEO after delivering condolences in English only, reigniting Canadian linguistic debates.

Regulatory Scrutiny & Sectoral Fallout

Regulatory bodies are intensifying scrutiny across various sectors, from technology to finance. Chinese regulators are reviewing Manus’s $2 billion sale to Meta amid official fears about strategic technology flowing overseas, while Indonesian regulators are probing underwriters like Mirae and UOB over alleged capital market crimes following a stock plunge. In the US, the Trump EPA will waive volatility requirements for E15 gasoline this summer, expanding sales and providing a boost to corn farmers and biofuels producers. Furthermore, the US Postal Service will impose its first-ever fuel surcharge specifically on packages, though not on standard mail.