Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: March 25, 2026, 2:30 PM ET

Geopolitics & Energy Volatility

Global markets grappled with uncertainty as hopes for a swift resolution to the Middle East conflict faded, prompting US stock futures to retreat while European equities also declined. The ongoing war continues to drive commodity price turbulence, with energy firms finding planning 'insane' due to unpredictable swings in commodity costs, which is complicating output decisions for the coming months. In response to supply fears, the UK’s business secretary approved a £100mn plan to temporarily restart the Ensus carbon dioxide plant in north-east England as a buffer against potential shortages exacerbated by the Iran conflict. Meanwhile, US commercial crude oil stockpiles increased by 6.9 million barrels last week, reaching 456.2 million barrels, even as Saudi Arabia ramped up shipments from Yanbu to circumvent the Strait of Hormuz now effectively controlled by Iran.

Diplomatic efforts are underway to de-escalate tensions, with the US exploring avenues to end hostilities even as President Trump continues to issue threats, leading to a temporary drop in Treasury yields as traders sought comfort in the potential de-escalation as seen by falling US borrowing costs. However, the crisis is already creating severe economic strain worldwide; African nations, including South Africa and Kenya, are warning residents against hoarding fuel while imposing fines, as the CEO of FNB suggested the war may derail South Africa’s fragile recovery. The impact is rippling through industrial sectors, forcing BASF to sharply raise chemical prices again due to escalating costs stemming from the ongoing conflict, while in Europe, the EU is planning a carbon price brake to shield energy-squeezed industries.

Fixed Income & Liquidity Stress

The ongoing war volatility is significantly impacting fixed-income markets, where Morgan Stanley strategists observed less liquidity in the Treasury market, noting forced selling characteristics in two-year notes as traders unwound bets on Federal Reserve easing. This heightened uncertainty has also driven investors to pull a record $11 billion out of commodity ETFs, signaling a rapid exodus from assets perceived as risky amid the Middle East turmoil as investors rapidly pull funds. In private credit, investor concerns are intensifying following new limits on withdrawals and a recent debt downgrade, leading firms like Apollo to cap investor redemptions from its flagship fund, suggesting liquidity is tightening at the gates as the structure shows stress. This environment contrasts with the long-term M&A outlook, where a top Goldman Sachs dealmaker sees massive capital pools ready to drive future transactions once volatility subsides.

Corporate Dealmaking & Private Markets

Private equity activity remains brisk in select areas, with KKR striking a definitive deal to acquire the U.S. bakery chain Nothing Bundt Cakes from Roark Capital, which also owns Dunkin’. In the European infrastructure space, bidders including KKR and GIP are offering between €6bn and €8bn for Patrick Drahi’s French fiber network, XpFibre, as the debt-laden tycoon seeks asset sales. Meanwhile, German satellite maker OHB SE, in which KKR is a minority investor, is reportedly tapping banks for a share sale amid the general space sector boom. In a separate large-scale transaction, Brookfield Asset Management and Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec have agreed to a C$9 billion takeover of Canadian renewable energy firm Boralex Inc., valuing the deal at approximately $6.5 billion including debt in a major energy transaction.

Technology & Digital Finance Frontiers

The integration of blockchain into traditional finance accelerates, as executives promote tokenized stocks, arguing that real-time, blockchain-based settlement could fundamentally transform trading and investment. This movement is paralleled by established asset managers, with Franklin Templeton debuting ETFs in tokenized form that trade 24/7 via crypto wallets, bypassing standard brokerage hours. In the tech advisory sphere, President Trump is tapping Silicon Valley titans like Mark Zuckerberg and Jensen Huang for his Science and Technology advisory panel, while also appointing former Google executive Matt Brittin as the new BBC head. Further underscoring the AI market dominance, CFOs report that they are already seeing tangible efficiency gains from their investments in artificial intelligence, even as Epic Games was forced to lay off over 1,000 employees, representing 20 percent of its workforce, due to a slump in Fortnite performance.

Legal & Regulatory Fallout

A landmark US civil case resulted in a jury finding Meta and Google negligent regarding their app designs, which were deemed addictive and harmful to a young user’s mental health, resulting in a $3 million combined damages award, with Instagram’s owner paying the majority. In the UK, regulators are easing supervision over audit firms following reported quality improvements, signaling a new, less stringent approach from the Financial Reporting Council. Separately, in California, tech billionaires including Google co-founder Sergey Brin are funding campaigns heavily, reportedly paying $15 for every valid signature collected to fight a proposed wealth tax. Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank chief, Christine Lagarde, voiced concerns to Hungary after Budapest withheld a portion of cash and gold designated for Ukraine, risking damage to the euro’s credibility.

Aviation Incidents & Corporate Strategy

The aviation sector faced scrutiny following a fatal runway collision at LaGuardia Airport, where video and air traffic control recordings detailed the sequence of events that led to the incident involving an Air Canada jet and a fire truck. This tragedy drew swift political reaction, as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney reprimanded Air Canada’s CEO for issuing a video statement solely in English, reigniting debates over linguistic inclusivity in Canada following the tragic crash. Meanwhile, carriers are battling high expenses, with British Airways offering pilots a financial incentive—a bonus—for achieving lower aircraft fuel consumption to mitigate soaring oil costs. In other travel news, Thailand faces a potential loss of up to 3 million visitors if the Middle East war persists, threatening the nation’s tourism-reliant economy as global travel remains disrupted.