Public Markets 3 Days

Last updated: March 25, 2026, 8:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Tensions and Commodity Markets

Global markets faced continued turbulence as the war in the Middle East persisted, prompting a mixed reaction across asset classes. Crude oil prices climbed amid conflicting comments from the U.S. and Iran regarding efforts to end hostilities, even as President Trump backed off his threat to destroy Iran’s power infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz remained closed. This diplomatic back-and-forth fueled caution, with Asian equities initially set to drift higher on ceasefire hopes before volatility surged again as hopes for a quick end faded. The conflict’s impact continued to reverberate through the real economy: Saudi Arabia ramped up shipments from Red Sea terminals to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, while in Europe, the Bank of France trimmed its growth forecast and lifted inflation predictions due to soaring energy costs.

The energy shock extended far beyond oil, affecting industrial and consumer pricing worldwide. Chemical giant BASF raised prices sharply again following cost increases stemming from the conflict, and in the U.S., the Postal Service announced its first-ever fuel surcharge on packages. In Asia, the strain is evident as currencies crumble while governments scramble for fuel priced in U.S. dollars, leading to a situation where Asia is getting crushed. Further complicating energy security, the closure of the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar has caused Asian and European buyers to hunt for limited US cargoes, while in the UK, the government approved a £100mn plan to restart a carbon dioxide plant over fears of shortages linked to the war.

Public Equities and IPO Activity

Investor sentiment remains fragile, particularly in Japan, where equity holders are actively hedging against further downside due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. This geopolitical uncertainty is dragging down primary market performance, as Japan has now posted its longest streak of first-day IPO flops since 2020. Conversely, in the private markets, KKR is set to acquire the bakery chain Nothing Bundt Cakes from Roark Capital, and the firm is also preparing to trim its stake in German satellite maker OHB SE via a share sale. Meanwhile, the ambition for massive public offerings continues: SpaceX is reportedly aiming for a $75 billion capital raise as part of an IPO targeting a staggering $1.75 trillion valuation, prompting questions about whether such a figure is achievable.

Corporate and Legal Developments

Technology firms faced legal scrutiny across multiple fronts, as juries delivered verdicts in landmark social media cases. A jury found Meta and YouTube negligent in their app designs for harming a young user through addictive features, resulting in a $3 million damages award where the Instagram owner pays the majority. Separately, the Supreme Court limited liability for internet service providers, ruling that Cox Communications cannot be held liable for knowing users were sharing copyrighted music illegally. In other corporate news, Meta announced layoffs affecting 700 employees as it continues its strategic pivot toward artificial intelligence, while simultaneously facing a review by Chinese regulators over its $2 billion Manus sale due to concerns about strategic technology transfer.

Financial Markets and Credit Stress

The private credit sector is showing increasing signs of strain, despite assurances from major players. While Blackstone’s Kenneth Caplan reports low default levels within his firm's portfolio amid industry scrutiny, performance deterioration elsewhere is evident, highlighted by an Ares Management Corp. fund posting its steepest monthly loss on record in February. This stress is leading to rating actions, as a private credit fund jointly managed by Future Standard and KKR & Co. was cut to junk by Moody’s, a rare event that may force higher borrowing costs. In more traditional credit markets, the U.S. investment-grade bond market is thawing, with high-grade borrowers jumping back in after a three-day pause caused by war-related volatility. Furthermore, financial regulators are proposing a higher bar for non-banks to be tagged as "too-big-to-fail," while banks like BofA are launching teams to focus on private capital merger and acquisition exits.

Macroeconomic and Political Shifts

The economic impact of the Iran conflict is prompting global institutions to reassess outlooks. The IMF is running scenarios to gauge which nations might require fresh financing if the war continues. In Europe, the situation has led to a weakening economic outlook, as French business activity declined at the fastest pace since October, and in India, manufacturing slumped to its lowest level in nearly 4.5 years as factories curtailed output due to gas shortages. On the political front, gold prices declined on technical correction fears following a strong run, as traders weighed potential peace talks, while the dollar faces long-term pressure, as Morgan Stanley predicts a weakening as growth curbs and interest-rate differentials shrink. Domestically, the combative former Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin faces an arrest warrant for contempt after failing to produce financial records sought by his estranged son seven years after leaving office.