Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Last updated: March 13, 2026, 9:30 AM ET
ENERGY & COMMODITIES
Oil futures dropped 1.3% nytimes.com in early Asian trade after OPEC+ signaled potential output increases, while gold held near $2,340 bloomberg.com as a weakening dollar offset risk-on sentiment. A surge in aluminum prices nytimes.com pushed China Hongqiao's Zhang Bo past the $48 billion mark, cementing his position among Asia's wealthiest industrialists. Meanwhile, U.S. shale producers tested their restraint bloomberg.com as oil prices hovered near $100/barrel, with activity showing early signs of ticking higher despite historically low drilling activity. The Hormuz Strait blockade bloomberg.com effectively halted all commercial maritime traffic, with vessel-tracking data confirming no transits in either direction over 24 hours, exacerbating supply fears and keeping Brent crude near $100. Saudi Arabia's oil release nytimes.com aimed to alleviate pressure but failed to quell investor anxiety, as European gas prices spiked bloomberg.com on supply concerns, threatening industrial output across the continent.
FIXED INCOME
Japanese government bonds extended gains bloomberg.com tracking overnight Treasury rallies as traders increasingly price in a September Fed rate cut. However, U.S. airline bonds weakened ft.com after jet fuel costs spiked 8% on Middle East supply fears, and Chicago's planned municipal bond sale bloomberg.com is testing investor appetite amid geopolitical uncertainty. The Iran war's impact on U.S. Treasuries bloomberg.com became evident as yields rose to multi-month highs, with Commerzbank advising investors to avoid Bunds. Conversely, U.S. Treasury yields dipped bloomberg.com briefly as oil prices fell below $100, though the respite proved fleeting. Italian government bonds rallied bloomberg.com on similar Fed cut expectations, while German bunds lagged bloomberg.com amid broader European weakness. The Fed's rate cut timeline shifted bloomberg.com, with economists pushing the next cut to June, still expecting two quarter-point reductions by year-end despite geopolitical headwinds.
GEOPOLITICAL & MARKET IMPACT
The Hormuz blockade ft.com intensified, with Iran's new supreme leader vowing to keep the strait shut, prompting Europe to open talks ft.com with Iran for safe energy shipments. This crisis forced India's neighbors to seek fuel aid bloomberg.com as Middle East access dwindled, giving New Delhi leverage but straining its own reserves. The Fed's rate cut expectations bloomberg.com were tempered by the Iran conflict, with Chair nominee Warsh facing confirmation hurdles nytimes.com. Meanwhile, China's yuan strengthened bloomberg.com for a record 15th week, supported by policy interventions despite war-driven volatility. The dollar extended gains wsj.com to a 3-month high as investors sought safety, while the euro hit a 6-month low bloomberg.com on oil fears. Indonesian inflation risks bloomberg.com mounted, with the central bank warning a 3% budget deficit cap was increasingly unattainable. Turkish lira weakness bloomberg.com worsened, becoming the worst-performing EM currency as energy costs amplified existing economic risks ahead of elections. The Saudi Aramco IPO delay bloomberg.com underscored how the Hormuz crisis disrupted global energy investment plans, while UAE real estate bonds faced losses bloomberg.com as the blockade threatened a financing bonanza. South Africa's stocks plunged 10% bloomberg.com, the first back-to-back weekly loss since October, as the conflict dragged on and global risk appetite waned.