Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Moves
Goldman Sachs bloomberg.com warned of a "painful" path for US equities, citing fragile sentiment that left the S&P 500 bloomberg.com vulnerable. The index ended choppy trading little changed as investors weighed war impacts. JPMorgan Chase bloomberg.com simultaneously dialed back its bullish emerging-markets calls due to Iran war risks. Emerging-market currencies bloomberg.com suffered their worst day since 2024 as the dollar surged. Oil prices bloomberg.com spiked dramatically, with benchmark diesel futures rising 23%, creating inflationary pressures that Janet Yellen bloomberg.com said could keep the Fed "even more on hold."
IPOs & Deals
PayPay bloomberg.com and SoftBank are seeking up to $1.1 billion in a US IPO that would be the largest ever for a Japanese company, though the marketing start was delayed bloomberg.com. This comes as the Middle East conflict bloomberg.com pressures other IPO candidates to expedite deals. Separately, Sunbelt Rentals bloomberg.com made its stock-market debut, attracting investors seeking asset-heavy businesses. Ares Management bloomberg.com emerged as the lead buyer in a $2.2 billion private credit portfolio secondary sale, while Ares bloomberg.com also closed an $850 million continuation fund for Convergint.
Central Banks & Policy
Yellen highlighted the dual risk of the Iran conflict: a hit to growth and rising inflation. The Swiss National Bank investing.com posted a significant profit as its gold holdings offset a dollar slump. In Australia, top pension funds bloomberg.com rushed to hedge against a surging local dollar threatening returns. South Korea bloomberg.com saw export momentum continue, easing monetary policy pressure. Meanwhile, Colombia bloomberg.com planned 50% reciprocal tariffs on Ecuador, intensifying a bilateral spat.
Energy & Commodities
The Iran war disrupted critical energy infrastructure, spiking oil and gasoline futures. Oil producers bloomberg.com rushed to lock in future revenue amid the price surge. Qatar bloomberg.com shut its giant LNG export plant after an Iranian drone attack, sending European gas prices soaring 54%. US natural gas exporters bloomberg.com gained a potential boost from supply disruptions, though capacity constraints may limit benefits. Supertanker rates bloomberg.com soared to record levels as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted. Chevron investing.com and Exxon saw price targets raised at Bof A due to an increased oil risk premium.
Financial Institutions
JPMorgan CEO bloomberg.com Jamie Dimon said he isn't surprised by the market's sanguine reaction to the Iran strikes but warned inflation is the "skunk at the party." He also expects a pickup in M&A activity bloomberg.com this year. JPMorgan bloomberg.com noted banks may do things it wouldn't in the coming credit cycle. In other banking news, JPMorgan ft.com cut services for Citadel Securities in a clash over business roles. Barclays investing.com downgraded Blue Owl on BDC outflows but upgraded Step Stone. The Caisse de Depot bloomberg.com defended its private credit returns, calling sector concerns overblown.
Currency & Safe Havens
Investors turned to gold ft.com and the US dollar as havens, not bonds, amid the conflict. The dollar investing.com surged to a five-week high against the euro and sterling. Municipal bonds bloomberg.com also offered shelter as war escalated. Top Australian funds revisited currency hedges as the Aussie dollar rallied on crowded bullish bets. The pound slipped against the surging greenback.
Corporate & Sector Impacts
Airlines bloomberg.com extended flight cancelations across the Middle East, with stocks falling sharply. Hotel and cruise shares investing.com dipped in Europe and the US. Defense stocks bloomberg.com jumped on the conflict. Energy shares bloomberg.com surged alongside oil futures. Toyota ft.com bowed to Elliott in a $38 billion buyout battle by raising its offer. Audi bloomberg.com gambled on a no-rings China EV strategy that is falling flat with drivers. Amazon's AWS finance.yahoo.com reported an outage after a UAE data center was struck by "objects." SoftBank's Pay Pay delayed its US IPO marketing start.