Barclays downgraded Blue Owl to Equal Weight from Overweight while upgrading StepStone to Overweight, citing diverging exposure to private credit pressures. The firm warned that concerns over AI impacts and business development company outflows have reset expectations for alternative asset managers. Blue Owl faces mounting challenges as quarterly redemptions at its non-traded BDCs reached over $1 billion in the fourth quarter.

Inflows into Blue Owl's OCIC have slowed dramatically, dropping from $600 million monthly through November to just $208 million in February. Barclays now projects net flows for non-traded BDCs will turn negative in 2026 and remain under pressure for several quarters. The firm cut its price target on Blue Owl to $11, reflecting lower earnings expectations and a more conservative view on fee growth.

StepStone's lighter exposure to non-traded BDCs and private credit positions it better amid current market turbulence. The firm's wealth channel shows no meaningful slowdown in flows, and Barclays highlighted strong incentive fees at SPRING. While Barclays lowered its StepStone price target to $55 from $67 to reflect lower sector multiples, it views the recent share decline as offering a more attractive entry point.