Public Markets 3d Briefing
×Market Turmoil Amid Middle East Conflict
Oil prices bloomberg.com surged as Brent crude futures climbed over 4% following US-Israeli strikes on Iran. Hedge funds bloomberg.com turned the most bullish on Brent crude since April 2024, with bullish oil bets hitting a 22-month high as investors grew concerned about potential supply disruptions. Insurance brokers ft.com warned that coverage costs for ships in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz could increase by as much as 50% after the conflict erupted.
Bitcoin finance.yahoo.com prices fell below $64,000 as crypto markets reacted to the Middle East tensions, with traders hedging war risks through 24/7 oil and gold trading. Gold wagers bloomberg.com hit a 16-week high as risk-off sentiment grew, with Polymarket contracts tied to Iran strikes trading $529 million worth of volume.
Corporate Earnings & Market Performance
Berkshire Hathaway wsj.com reported operating profit slid nearly 30% on insurance underwriting, marking Warren Buffett's final quarter as CEO before Greg Abel took over. Shake Shack wsj.com reported higher fourth-quarter profit as sales growth and operational improvements allowed it to maintain margins amid industry headwinds.
Block investing.com announced a 40% headcount reduction, seen as an AI-driven reset according to Bernstein. EA bloomberg.com failed to win bondholder support for a buyback by a key deadline, unable to gain enough support to buy back bonds at a steep discount to face value.
Tech & AI Developments
NVIDIA CEO Huang investing.com pushed back on the "Saa Spocalypse" narrative, calling it a "deep misunderstanding" of the market. Apple investing.com was seen as an "anti-AI" safe haven according to Moffett Nathanson, while Morgan Stanley investing.com highlighted online travel agencies as potential AI winners.
Anthropic investing.com launched new cybersecurity tools, though Bernstein said this was not an existential risk to the sector. Software stocks investing.com showed signs of a tradeable bounce according to Raymond James, while the "Saa Spocalypse" narrative continued to impact valuations.
Macroeconomic & Policy Developments
China investing.com may trim its 2026 growth target while keeping policy supportive, according to Bank of America. China's yuan bloomberg.com hit a 35-month high as the dollar kept falling, with tariff uncertainty bleeding into currency markets.
US farmers bloomberg.com viewed new Trump tariffs as yet another round of instability after seeking stability following a mercurial year. The Trump administration wsj.com plans to reverse Biden rules on gig workers, proposing to make it easier for companies to classify workers as independent contractors.
International Markets & Trade
Argentina stocks bloomberg.com saw their rally stall as earnings woes offset the Milei boost, with past market euphoria fizzling out amid weak corporate earnings. India bloomberg.com expanded rules for $385 billion stock funds to add gold, giving actively managed equity funds greater flexibility as global demand for the metal rises.
BP bloomberg.com went big on shale oil drilling as many rivals flatlined output, aggressively expanding shale drilling to reverse years of anemic production. Stellantis wsj.com targeted a return to profit after a costly EV about-turn, reporting a $26 billion annual loss following hefty charges on its strategic reset.
Financial Sector & Investment
Private credit stocks bloomberg.com signaled more pain is coming, with falling income, slashed dividends, and loan markdowns doing little to soothe investors concerned about sector risks. Blackstone chief Schwarzman ft.com received $1.2 billion in 2025 income, standing to make more than $1 billion annually from dividends.
Asia's biggest banks bloomberg.com lined up bids for HSBC Indonesia assets, helping them forge ahead in Southeast Asia's large and growing market. Top Barclays executive ft.com was appointed to lead the UK banking supervisor, with Katharine Braddick taking over at the Prudential Regulation Authority.
Deal Activity & Corporate Moves
Paramount wsj.com won the bidding war for Warner Discovery after Netflix dropped out, with Warner's board determining Paramount's revised offer was superior. Columbia University student yahoo.com was detained by ICE after agents allegedly "made misrepresentations" to campus security.
Deutsche Telekom investing.com reported Q4 profit fell 9% on dollar hit, trimming Germany outlook. Just Group investing.com saw annual profit plunge 39% as sales and margins weakened, while Baidu wsj.com reported sharply lower profit with revenue declining for a third straight quarter as it struggles to transform in the AI era.
Regional Developments & Market Impact
Emerging-market local-currency bonds bloomberg.com were becoming less sensitive to swings in US Treasuries as investors focused more on yield advantage. Venezuela finance.yahoo.com suspended 19 oil and gas production-sharing contracts signed under the Maduro government, according to sources.
UK's Starmer bloomberg.com urged a return to diplomatic process for US and Iran, extending support to allies while calling for Tehran to avoid further escalation. France, Germany, and UK yahoo.com told Iran to stop attacks in the region as European powers sought to de-escalate tensions.
Market Sentiment & Investment Strategy
Tradeable bounce was developing in software stocks according to Raymond James, while strategists saw only temporary market impact from Iran strikes. AI investment investing.com in Europe lagged the US but stood to gain on productivity according to UBS.
AI opportunity investing.com was seen as more significant than a threat for cyber stocks, with AI presenting more of an opportunity than a threat for the sector. AI models finance.yahoo.com predicted XRP values ranging from $1.4 to $14 by December 31, 2026, highlighting the uncertainty in crypto markets.