Two months into 2024, the S&P 500 remains flat, yet Wall Street's bullish consensus for a 10% gain to year-end 2026 is unchanged from January. Strategists, guided by Bank of America's sentiment data, maintain their optimistic targets based on projected strong US growth and robust corporate earnings. Wells Fargo's Sameer Samana asserts this resilience stems from underlying economic strength, seemingly unaffected by recent Middle East tensions following the US-Iran conflict. However, persistent inflation, shifting tariffs, AI disruption threats, and private credit market strains create significant headwinds. Morgan Stanley and Piper Sandler view any pullback from Iran as a buying opportunity, citing historical volatility.

Conversely, Miller Tabak's Matt Maley warns of extreme complacency, predicting investors will buy dips until a correction inevitably burns them. Blue Owl Capital's halt to redemptions signals private credit stress, raising fears of spillover into leveraged corporate sectors. Despite strong Q1 earnings (13% S&P 500 profit growth), the index fell 1.7% during earnings season, reflecting skepticism about sustained momentum.