Russia shipping its highest crude flow since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine hits 3.46 million barrels a day, about 120,000 above 2025 levels and topping every annual average since February 2022. Drone strikes on refineries pushed processing to a 16‑year low and prompted Moscow to ban jet‑fuel exports. The surge forces more barrels onto the global market.

Global oil markets tightened after the US and Israel struck Iran in February, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz and cut roughly 15 million barrels per day from Persian Gulf flows. Prices spiked and the Biden administration eased sanctions under former President Trump to smooth Indian purchases. India bought about 1.76 million barrels a day in May, a 63% jump from February.

Tanker‑tracking shows 124 million barrels at sea — 25% above the mid‑April low — with daily shipments near 3.65 million barrels. India receives roughly 700,000 b/d and China about 1.03 million b/d, while a sizable share rides vessels showing no final destination. Export value hovers around $2.24 billion weekly, levels not seen since early war days.