Oil prices spiked to about $85 a barrel after the US and Israel’s war on Iran, reshaping trade balances across sub‑Saharan Africa. Bloomberg Economics says only Angola, Nigeria and Ghana will see current‑account gains, while the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Africa and Kenya face losses. Higher oil costs drive weaker currencies and inflation.

Inflation poses the biggest risk for most nations, with South Africa’s fuel costs expected to rise in April and traders pricing in a possible rate hike. Angola could lift its current‑account by up to 3.3% of GDP, while Nigeria benefits from crude sales and potential fuel exports to Europe.

Nigeria’s billionaire Aliko Dangote hinted at moving more product from his 650,000‑barrel‑a‑day refinery to Europe if prices stay high, adding a new export channel. South Africa may also face supply constraints as India and Oman, two major suppliers, reduce exports, tightening fuel availability and pressuring domestic prices.

The oil surge benefits a handful of economies but threatens to widen inflationary pressures elsewhere, potentially prompting central banks to revisit rate policies. Investors should monitor currency movements and commodity flows, as shifts in oil pricing can quickly alter trade balances and fiscal outlooks across the continent.