U.S. natural gas futures are lower ahead of the EIA’s weekly inventory report due at 10:30 a.m. ET. Analysts in a WSJ survey expect a 30 Bcf storage injection, slightly smaller than the 33 Bcf five-year average. That would trim the inventory surplus over the five-year average to 192 Bcf from 195 Bcf the previous week. “Without a bullish EIA print or continued warm weather, ebbing momentum could limit short-term upside,” Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Nymex natural gas is down 2.4% at $2.737/mm Btu.

European gas markets face renewed supply pressures as geopolitical tensions and infrastructure disruptions push prices higher. The Netherlands-based TTF September contract trades just shy of 60 euros a megawatt-hour and is headed for a weekly gain of 6%. “European and Asian gas markets find themselves in the high-priced part of yet another hope-disillusionment cycle of Middle East negotiation attempts,” says Jan-Eric Fahnrich from Rystad Energy. Uncertainty surrounding negotiations between Iran and Oman over the Strait of Hormuz adds volatility, while EU storage levels lag behind last year, with facilities 59% full. Europe may attract additional U.S. LNG cargoes from October, alongside diverted shipments from Egypt, easing supply concerns.