Lula and Bolsonaro remain locked in a tight race as Brazil prepares to vote Sunday, according to new polls. A Datafolha survey published Saturday found Lula would receive 45% to Bolsonaro's 42% of valid votes in a first round scenario, while a Quaest poll commissioned by Globo showed Lula at 46% to Bolsonaro's 45%. If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, the top two will advance to a runoff on Oct. 25.
Lula has 47% to Bolsonaro's 46% in a runoff scenario, with changes within the margin of error of plus or minus 2 points. Quaest's poll found Bolsonaro with 44% to Lula's 42% of voting intentions in a runoff. Polls have consistently suggested the pair are locked in a tight contest, set to determine whether Brazil joins a regional rightward shift.
Markets will watch first round margins for clues on runoff momentum. The race has been repeatedly upended by a major bank fraud case centered on Daniel Vorcaro, jailed former owner of Banco Master SA. Police are probing Flávio Bolsonaro's dealings with the banker, after he approached Vorcaro for funding for a film about his father.
The conservative challenger denies wrongdoing. Lula has boosted benefits under the government's flagship social program and banned online gambling to address household debt concerns in the final weeks of the campaign. Datafolha surveyed 4,006 voters from Oct. 2-3 with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.
Quaest surveyed 3,702 voters from Oct. 2-3 with the same margin of error.
Source: Bloomberg Markets · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing