Houthi blockade shaping who moves Saudi crude, not whether it moves, as oil prices hit $100 a barrel. Brent futures rose to $100.65, exceeding $100 for the first time since May. Houthis attacked two Saudi tankers in the Bab el-Mandeb, setting one ablaze, and declared a naval blockade on Saudi, Israeli, and US-linked shipments.

Michelle Bockmann of Windward says enforcement is calibrated to affiliation rather than cargo. Chinese-owned tankers from Yanbu were allowed through Bab el-Mandeb on July 20 without interdiction, consistent with a prior "free pass" for China. Windward concludes the blockade shapes who moves Saudi crude, not whether it moves.

Rachel Ziemba notes multiple chokepoints represent new littoral-state leverage. Diesel also impacted: US gasoline averages $4.09 per gallon, diesel $5.34. Patrick De Haan of Gas Buddy says diesel hit harder due to Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries, prompting a Russian diesel export ban.

China's reduced imports had stabilized prices; unclear if it will draw on strategic reserves or resume purchases. Hurricane season adds another wildcard for global refining capacity and prices.