Goldman Sachs Group Inc. projects the global oil market will return to oversupply as tensions from the Iran conflict ease and shipping traffic normalizes through the Strait of Hormuz. The investment bank's commodities research team sees a significant glut developing despite ongoing demand recovery efforts.

Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, noted that while countries purchasing crude to rebuild strategic reserves will temporarily tighten markets, these purchases won't fully counteract the expected surplus. The shift comes as geopolitical risks that previously supported oil prices begin to fade from the market.

Strategic reserve replenishment programs, launched during supply disruptions, are now contributing to demand but remain insufficient to absorb the full impact of returning supply. Dart's analysis suggests the market balance will tip toward oversupply in coming months.

For energy investors, this creates a challenging environment where geopolitical de-escalation could pressure prices despite seasonal demand patterns. The Strait of Hormuz recovery and fading conflict premiums represent fundamental headwinds for oil markets.