European natural gas rose after Iran threatened to expand the war in the Middle East, dimming hopes that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize anytime soon. Benchmark futures jumped as much as 5.8% on Thursday, tracking a surge in oil prices. The market has been choppy this week as traders weigh geopolitical developments against Europe’s efforts to rebuild depleted gas stockpiles ahead of winter.

"We move constantly between de-escalation and conflict, and that’s something that nobody can actually manage correctly," Anne-Sophie Corbeau, a researcher at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, said at the Energy Trading Week conference in London. "Let’s secure the peace agreement first, and then we should decide on whether we believe in that."

A top Iranian military official said Tehran may broaden the war to the Indian Ocean if struck again by the US or Israel. While more oil cargoes are transiting Hormuz, flows of liquefied natural gas remain down to a trickle because they rely on specialized tankers and are more vulnerable to security risks. Qatar sent at least two laden carriers through the route in the last week, but traffic remains far below pre-war levels of roughly three LNG shipments a day.

European gas storage is currently just over 70% full, below the seasonal norm of 86%. Tightening the market further, Norwegian piped flows to the continent have declined because of maintenance. Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, rose 5.7% to €76.13 a megawatt-hour as of 6:06 p.m. in Amsterdam.