Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway bring you daily content from the Odd Lots universe. In a few short weeks, we will be in Chicago for the next Odd Lots live show! We are pleased to announce that one of our on-stage guests will be James Robinson, a Nobel Prize-winning economist and political scientist at the University of Chicago. He shared the award with Simon Johnson and Daron Acemoglu in 2024. We are thrilled to be speaking to Robinson at City Winery on October 15.

The 30-year yield is now up to 5.4219, its highest level since June 2004. There’s a great new research report from Alliance Bernstein’s Inigo Fraser Jenkins on what he calls “The Everything Trade” (which is obviously AI). He makes the point that there has been a huge inflow of foreign capital in the last few years, with a willingness of foreign counterparts to hold equity.

There are two huge, opposing macro trends in the US: the AI boom and the deteriorating political environment. A big question is which trend will outlast which. If the AI boom fizzles out during political instability, one can imagine an ugly mix of fraught politics, a recession, and a declining stock market.